Sorry forgot to post how everything turned out today. Coffee closed at 133.25. Not much to say other than that guys took a little money and covered some shorts. Im really suprised to see coffee staying so strong. Anyway we will just have to see what next week brings. OJ closed at 144.15. Weather shows above normal temps and a few light showers on sunday and monday (the trees are a little dry and could use some moisture). Then on tuesday and wednesday a cold air mass may lead to frost and light freeze conditions. I don't see that as much of a threat. Remember there are two different types of freezes that we need to discuss. A hard freeze is a major freeze that causes extreme damage to the fruit and stunts the tree growth/productivity for years to come. A soft freeze is a freeze that damages the "meat" of the orange which doesn't make it suitable for selling as a whole orange. What it does make it suitable for is squeezing into juice. So actually a soft freeze creates more orange juice because so many oranges were damaged just enough that they could not sell them whole so they sell them to make oj. This is actually a bearish freeze if you can imagine that! I think we are coming up on a major top in the crude oil market. Thursday's inventories came out and said we had a 3.3 million barrel draw in crude. 2.8 million barrel draw in distillate fuel and a bullish 700,000 barrel build in gasoline. But a funny thing I noticed when going back over the report was that refineries used less oil in the previous week but at the same time more imports reached the shore. So how could the gulf coast see a 3.3 million barrel drop? Granted there was a little fog in the houston shipping channel. EIA says that crude imports averaged 9.8 million barrels per day last week. Thats up almost 700,000 barrels per day from last week. Over the last 4 weeks they said imports have averaged 9.6 million barrels a day. I want to say that next weeks inventories report will be a huge build but on the other hand I could also see them saying there was still fog in the houston channel even though there really wasn't but they want to keep all of that oil on the ships until the new year for tax purposes. This could mean another draw in crude when there really shouldn't be. We look toppy on a chart and im keeping a bearish bias on crude this week. Might try to make a few short sales this week.
Well the end of the year is here and its been an exiting time for me. I know the real end of the year is monday but my end of the year is going to be yesterday lol! Anyway my total profit since I started the journal is $17,105. That is a 171% return on my investment which was $10,000. Not to bad for a 17 year old kid from Iowa if I do say so myself lol!!! Its been one hell of a ride everybody and I have enjoyed every minute of it (well except a few times). You all have witnessed my strikeouts that occured in both wheat and soybeans. You also have all witnessed my homeruns that occured in lumber and sugar. You've seen my base hits like cotton and corn. You have seen me dabble in all different types of commodity contracts such as energies, softs, grains, meats, financials,etc. Its been a great time and a very good learning experience for me and I hope you all picked up on a few things along the way . Talk to you all next year!
Young Thanks for the wishes. Yeah its been a great year. I will talk about my plans for the new year sometime next week. I think you all are going to be a little suprised!
congrats on the profit, you're a rich young man! And the oil thing, you got ALL that from the inventory report? I assume you got the Houston fog from elsewhere? And... how did you know there really "wasn't a fog"? And can you explain the tax? thanks
lol boy thats a mouth full lol! Not sure I would call that rich but its definantly a start right? Yeah sure I can explain the report. No I did not get all that info from the eia report but most of it I did. People accredite the majority of the draws in crude due to the fog in the houston channel when imo it really has much more to do with tax reasons. Now keep in mind there really has been fog the last 2-3 weeks (i cant remember for sure). That fog has disrupted oil flow through a main channel in the gulf coast. What I was getting at with the fog was that even if there isn't any fog they might still say fog was the reason for the draw in this coming weeks report even though the oil companies really just wanted to keep the crude on the ships for tax purposes (they want to keep the oil on the ships until the end of the year so they don't have to pay income tax on it) The eia does release import numbers which are really important to consider because mostly all of our oil is imported. That report really has quite a bit of info in it. All the more you need to trade oil really. Other than that just remember to keep your ear to the floor and you will get all the info you need. I appreciate you asking questions and feel free to ask anything else you are uncertain about.
how to keep an eye on the floor? btw ur observation is awesome i must say i cant really understand how can fog an issue with all those latest gadgets, GPS and other instruments the real reason was tax savings
An ear to the floor actually. I think its an old saying for keep your ears open.....hell I dont know lol! But thats the point that im trying to make. Get all the info you possibly can, do your homework, and keep your ears open for any sort of news that might be out there. Fog can be a major problem in the shipping channels. The ships can have all the gps systems in the world but I wouldn't bet my life on it when I can't see infront of me due to the fog and I have a load of fucking crude oil on that could blow my ass up!
Good Morning Everyone Coffee up a full point this morning. Im out of all 3 contracts at 133.5 unscathed. OJ down about .50 Been trading a few british pound contracts since 3am and they have been good for about $118 so far. I have been trading the currency markets intra day for a while now (very small) so I might as well add them to the journal.
It was a fun day today everyone. I mean a really fun day!!! Like I said earlier this morning I got out of my coffee at even money. I did also exit my oj today at 145.50. A measly $465 made there. Like I was also saying. Im starting to trade intra day more (I know, I know my intra day track record hasn't been to good in the past) but im honestly becoming more profitable and being able to read the markets better intra day. My intra day trading involved 9 British Pound trades (I think) and 3 crude oil trades. My net profit on the day between both of them is $467.50. I don't think im going to record this to the journal though. The main reason for this journal was to record my position trading not intra day trading (I think that would be a boring journal). So I will still only record my position trades but time to time I will let everybody know how im doing intra day......just for shits! For the year ahead I am switching my focus. This past year it has been mainly on grains and softs. This coming year I plan to focus on currency futures and energies. The main reason for this is because I will start to trade currencies intra day everyday between the hours of 3am-7:30am and when summer starts I will trade currencies from 7am-2pm and crude from 8am-1:30pm. So I figure if im going to trade these markets intra day I might as well learn how to position trade them well also. Not saying I won't add a softs trade or grain trade among them but im just saying currencies/energies will be the majority of my position trades. My goal for 2008 (along with my new year's resolution ) is to turn my account of $27,000 into $100,000 by the end of the year. I know what your all thinking, hes an alright kid but what a dumbass to think he can make over 350% in a year???!!! Well I have been called a dumbass for worse things lol! But anyway thats my goal and if all goes well I honestly think I can achieve it. Im open for any comments or concerns over the past year or on the year ahead.