As you know it's currently in an uptrend, I wouldn't look to short it until ... whatever criteria you use to enter your positions. What is that for me? After it breaks support and starts on a downtrend on a 15 minute chart ... a body in motion, and such. I
Good Morning Everyone I shorted 1 feb crude last night at 96. Up about .50 today at 96.50. Some fucking lady overseas was killed last night so that is making everyone crazy. I think she has something to do with pakastan or something like that. If this was a really big deal we would see crude up higher than just .50. If it was any big deal at all we should see crude up a couple of bucks. This thing is going lower today, especially after the eia report. I want to add another short here but this thing could blow up in my face if im wrong! Coffee down .55 to 133.10. We need a close below 132 to gain some fresh downside momentum. If we can close below that level im interested in shorting a few more coffee contracts. OJ down 2.90 this morning to 143.15. Im kicking myself for being a pussy and not shorting a few more contracts yesterday. I knew it was going to plummet!!! 143 is a key area before we test the 140 mark which could potentially take us all the way down to 115. Going to be an interesting day like always Good Trading Everyone!
Jesus, Sure looks like things are against me in the crude position. Everyone saying that the durable number will reveal a weaker dollar. They are also saying the inventories are going to be bullish yet again. Also don't forget about that ladies death in pakastan. Sure sounds like im up against the ropes with this one but one thing my dad always tells me is when everybody gets going one way and it looks like a sure thing that it will happen go the opposite way. The reason is even if everything turns out bullish you still might get some liquidation because of the "buy the rumor sell the fact". It just seems to be too much good news at once. We look toppy up here on the charts and I believe inventories are not going to be that terribly bullish. As for that death, like I said if it was any big deal we would already be up a couple of bucks regardless of the inventories report out. (Am I just typing reasons to feel good about my crude position lol?)
You have done a good job with your journal, but yes. You are gambling on this one. Just trying to give you a disconnected view. Good luck.
shorted 1 more coffee at 132. Average is now 3 at 133.5. I wanted to wait for the close to short another but I dont think we will push higher today, especially not back into that fucking trading range we have been in. This is the start of our trade down into the long term trading range I talked about. Yes I am a gambler but aren't we all? I love to swing the bat and try to knock one out of the park. I love throwing the dice. My gut instinct has served me well over the years (not just in trading). My ability to read human herd instinct has also served me well. Not saying that this is a surefire trade but I feel really good about it. Crude up .14 at 96.11 as of now.
Gambling in the sense that you think the numbers will support your crude position. However you seem to measure your risk well. Not judging overall trade because we all are responsible for our decisions.
Out of my crude at 96.75. 750$ kick in the ass! I shouldn't of tried to guess it but to be honest I really thought we would trade lower today especially with the inventories report out. Inventories turned out to be extremely bullish. There was a draw of 3.3 million barrels in crude!.
All in all a good day today. My crude did not work out like I would have liked but I did capitalize on the selloff later in the session. I covered my first position I put on last night at 96.75 which I took a $750 loss on. I did make a short sell around 12:00 for $100. So in the end crude oil took me for $650. I like to trade this market intra day and will probably be doing it a little more often.......at least while I can because I go back to school next thursday. I shorted another march coffee today and another short march oj. My averages are now 2 oj at 147.05 and 3 coffee at 133.5 As far as coffee goes not much to say. No fundamental news to move the market and basically just a little fund liquidation. Market continues to await the jan 8 report I have talked about. We closed below 132 which should generate enough momentum to take us down to 130 at least. Im thinking about taking profits at this level and then look to get short with a breakout below that level. OJ closed lower also. Just more long liquidation happening here. Weather is suppose to be dry and above normal temps. Just the perfect type of weather for these traders to liquidate more longs. Im looking at 142.50 as a major support level but if we can get through there we are headed for 140 in a hurry! I am also thinking about taking profits at the 140 level and then look to get short again with a breakout below that level.
Thought I would give everybody a little update on whats been happening today. Coffee trading a little higher at around 133 OJ trading lower at 142