By the way everyone total profit on the journal is $9,720!!!! I started this journal with $10,000 in my account and my goal is to make 100% on my money by years end. It looks like a chip shot now but things could drastically turn any time. Regardless though I feel good about my returns so far.
Sorry everyone for not keeping up on the journal but deer season started saturday. So I was out and about trying to get my buck for the season. Out of my es friday at 1471. Basically unscathed here as only a $50 loss. I thought this thing was going to tank again after the recent runup but now im having second thoughts and when in doubt sit on the sidelines. Still got my sugar.
Lots of trading went on today everyone. And a lot of that trading was good trading if I do say so myself! Still short my sugar. Trade house buying has been taking place as we continue to tick down in low volume basically the selling has been created by small specs so im told. I shorted 1 contract of march coffee at 130 today. This rally is just total BS. Not much to say other than that. Funds have continued to cut longs and add to shorts. My hunch about cocoa going up was correct! I was looking at the good old cup with a handle pattern that was forming. I got long 1 march contract at 2000. Fundies also supportive here. Looking to sell some march cotton at 62.50 tomorrow. This thing has really fell through the floor lately and im still kicking myself for not getting short when we busted through the major trendline. Fundies give me support to the downside also. Wow 2 hunches that I made turned out correct! Lumber fell hard today but sadly I missed the boat on that one. I forgot all about it to be honest and missed the opportunity to get short. Didn't notice it fell so hard until I got back from school. Anyway lots of good trading today so I feel good and feel good going into tomorrow also.
Not much happening everyone just kinda holding on and waiting for all my positions to play out. I see no reason to change any of my positions in coffee cocoa or sugar. Will look to short cotton at 62.50 though. Other than that nothing going. Anybody have any thoughts on what im doing here with the markets or just general comments about the journal? Hell I would even take some critisism from somebody lol! I would like to here from some long term readers of this journal and have them give there opinion on either my trades or the journal itself.
Keep on posting, I read the journal and enjoy it! I usually don't have opinions on the trades you're taking, although I was doubtful of your long in Sugar in the downtrend. But stick to what you're doing - good luck and happy trading!
hrokling thanks for the reply and I do appreciate you reading the journal. I hope its given you some info and knowledge about the physical commodities that I trade. I do enjoy making this journal as it has taught me alot about myself and my trading. Anyway on with the trading day. Coffee closed modestly higher today but failed to break the 132 mark which I think would put a slightly different picture on the coffee market. This has been the 3rd straight week that funds have been cutting their longs and increasing shorts in the coffee market. This has been a total commercial lead rally (my thinking is they just needed the coffee beans and couldn't afford to wait for price to fluctuate otherwise they would have to shut down the plants). This has given the funds a grand opportunity to load up on shorts and crush this thing yet again. Last time I checked Brazil still hadn't come out with their coffee report yet today but I know it is suppose to be released yet today. USDA is coming out with a tropical commodity report on friday I believe. I honestly think the funds are waiting for these reports to get ready to just crush this market. I think this all is the planning of a major decline coming. Sugar has no fundamental news out really. Brazil is under favorable conditions for cane growing and thats about it lol! Technically we need a close over 990 and then 1000 to make me feel better about this trade. Good support at 960 Over the last day or two it seems like there have been more willing buyers than in the past weeks. I also think after year end liquidation you could see some funds put some money into sugar. Don't ask me why but I just think you could see that happen. Took profit on cocoa today at 2070. About $700 profit. I think we could see a little pullback in this market for the time being. The strike is in negotiations and looks to be resolved in the ivory coast. Bearish fundamentals will start to weigh on this market after the strike is through. Still there is talk most of the commercial selling will slow considerably in the near future and we could see some upside after a small correction in this market. Cotton closed basically flat today.....I think. I know for sure it didn't reach my short level yet. News came out saying next years production will be about 3% below this years and demand should look to be a little better I think. Like I have said forever this is all reflecting the bullish new crop fundies in this market but the old crop is still on the bearish side. Lax demand and a huge crop should make old crop cotton hard to give away imo. Looking to get short around 62.50. Im long march sugar at 980 Im short march coffee at 130 Out of my march cocoa at 2070 $700 profit.
Coffee is starting to get setup for a huge fall everyone. Im thinking about adding positions here. Fridays report will be interesting. Sugar starting to get some momentum lately. Closed above 990. Technicals starting to turn bullish. We NEED to break about 1000 for solid upside support. Cotton never gave me an opportunity today to get short at my level. Although it was up today still looking to get short again. Glad I got out of my cocoa position when I did. I think we could see a little more of a decline and then look at maybe a possible buying opportunity.
Looking to sell some cotton at 64.50 and then at 65. Looking to maybe add to sugar if we can hold yet again over the 990 mark today. Might short more coffee if we break through 127. Got to go im late for a student council meeting this morning! Im always fucking late!
hey guy what are your thoughts on feed cattle and copper? any others to comment on? you kinda got me interested in something beside sp and bonds again. i the old days when i would trade copper they would call me back with a fill in about a week after you lost all your money of course. nah really it would take hours for a fill if not longer..
Sorry for not keeping everyone up to date on what happened friday. I have been deer hunting. Anybody ever hunted for deer? If not you really should try it. Hunting is a huge passion of mine! I did sell 1 cotton at 64.50 and took profit at 64. A good thing too because I was going to hold on but it was hard to turn away $250! Looking back on the chart though it really wouldn't of been that bad if I would of just held on to it. We have really good resistance at 65 and then at 65.85 or so. If this level is broken next resistance is 68 imo. The likelyhood of the market hitting 68 is very unlikely given the current fundie condition in old crop cotton. Will look for short positions at those levels. Im long 1 more contract of sugar at 990. We are turning more and more technically bullish (not much fundie info around now) with every close over 990. The next major step for this market is the 1000 level. This will be THE LEVEL to decide if we start a new major trend upward or continue our downward trend. Long 2 sugar at 985 is my average. Short 1 more march coffee at 131. Average is now 130.5 on 2 contracts. Not yet worried about the position but its chopping more than what I would have thought and more than I would like it to. Trade is still reluctant to push this market lower and we continue to trade near the top of the trading range. 132 is major resistance which will probably be the mark that I decide on what to do with my positions. 135 will give me a complete different view on the coffee market.