Got out of my lumber at 259 today. I didn't say it yesterday but I DID NOT like the way it closed yesterday and had a bad feeling there could be more blood today so I cut my losses and took a $150 loss. A good thing to with the housing starts turning out bad and all. I thought about going short the market but thought it might not be the best plan. Who the hell knows! Sugar closed down .04 today at 976. God, I want to think this thing is going higher but everybody seems to think its got nothing but downside ahead of it. If you guys are wondering what im seeing in the charts im looking at the uptrending channel starting in mid august. Just sticking to the trend and got long at the trendline at 980. Now I do realize that the major trend is down and sugar is trading right on that downward trendline but the 2 trendlines are meeting at this 975-980 level so maybe just maybe the bulls will have the strength to follow the uptrend instead of the downtrend. If they can not follow the uptrend and we start to go lower and fall through 970 I will probably exit my position in sugar. Wheat still fucking popping! Up 8 cents again. Just an oversold market catching its breath in my opinion but it must be taking some deep breaths because I did not think we would pop this far! I sold 2 more july wheat at 685. I now have 5 contracts of july wheat short at 687. If we still trade higher I plan to sell more (as I say this I think of soybeans for some reason lol) Probably the wrong thing to do but what the hell.
Im losing my touch!........wait I had touch? Out of wheat at 695. $2000 loss. This thing was wild today. Thin trading and front months limit up. Was not the day to try to sell more into this thing and I cut my losses yet again! With a new contract high we could see a little more buying friday especially if exports turn out as expected. Sugar up 2 at 9.77. Not much to say here other than its going to be a slow ride for a while. Its times like this where I ask myself what the hell am I doing? Why don't I take what small profits I have and do something constructive with my life instead of waiting to give back everything. The emotional rollercoaster trading can put on you is insane! The ups are good but the downs are always worse. Have a great thanksgiving everyone!
A few things I will be looking at this week everyone. I will be looking to short march coffee around 122. I will be looking to get long some march cotton at around 65. I will continue to hold on to my long march sugar which is up a little today at around 978. Nothing changing here. Coffee has been trading in a little uptrend conjestion pattern that looks to be the work of the commercials getting long but I think this is a head fake here and we are headed lower. Maolman brought this to my attention a while ago and I do thank him for that. Vietnam from my understanding is harvesting a near record crop although production will be about 6% below last year. Brazilian coffee exports were lower than expected (brazil is a major coffee producer and exporter). Cotton I believe is a little oversold and could get a little bounce at 65. I think that pop if it happens could be good for a few points and then we are headed back down. Old crop is no good but new crop has a lot of upside. Cocoa looks technically good but the fundamentals don't show it. The Ivory Coast has recieved over 60% more beans from farmers to sell than last year. Most cocoa warehouses are full of beans already as harvest is in full swing. Although there is some talk of poor quality beans around the fundamentals look to bearish to get long yet.
March sugar was down today closing at 974. Whats new! Guys are just reluctant to push it higher although they seem to be in no real hurry to push it lower either. Long march cotton at 65 today. Closed about 64.94 or around there. I think we could see a little short covering like I said before in this market. Lots of deliveries in the dec contract today put a bad taste in everyones mouth. Coffee fell today but not yet to my level of 122. At this level I will get short this market. usda raised its production estimates for the brazil crop which is coming along nicely. Vietnam has a nice harvest underway and the storm that hit did not do much damage. Exports have been a little higher though. Today I heard that ICE is going to review the softs pits and decide whether or not to keep them open and if they are still a viable method for trading these contracts. There is talk that the pits might not be around by feb. What a bunch of BS! They are indeed a very viable way to trade these contracts. Most of my trades go down to the pit and not the screen. When you think of futures trading you think of those crazy guys down in the pits with brightly colored jackets waving around like they are trying to swat away killer bees! Its what futures trading is all about, the raw capatalism that takes place there every day. I say keep it alive and thats why all my trades go to the pit although it doesn't amount to much I want to join in the effort to keep the pits alive.
not second guessing your trades just thinking out loud. 11/15/07 would have been a good inside day after to sell ct i think 66.14 i would be long i do think a short term bounce up will happen over the next few days which may reward you. 10/25/07 same thing inside day good time to sell day after sb with a buy at 9.94. 11/19/07 was a gap down would have been a good sell the day after and still a sell until that 128 1/2 level which would be looking to get long. but dont take my ramblings to seriously i haven't traded these markets your trading in over 10 years. mb
Mark thanks for the comments. Yeah im long cotton just trying to play a bounce. Not anything too big. Once I pick up a point or two im gone and probably will try to go short the thing again. Funds have been getting long into this decline and cutting their shorts. It has mainly been a commercial led selloff. The commercials aren't dumb, they know old crop is shit and thats why they are selling any old crop cotton they have on hand. Thats why in the very short term I think we could see the funds push this thing a little higher and then more selling will take place. Also a strong seasonal for prices to rise from late nov-early dec. Sugar just sucks right now. IMO the longer we trade below 990 the more bearish momentum the trade will pick up. We need a solid close over 990 to turn things around I think. There really isn't a lot of news in this market. There is a lot of supply on hand and lagging demand which has created this shitty trading enviroment with little or no volatility. My plan is to leave this party at the 970 level making it a little over a $100 loss if im wrong. The market is trading damn near this level this morning so I don't have much more room to play with. Coffee is getting me really exited to short it. But I will not short the thing until 122 is hit. I think this could be a real winner. Funds have cut their longs and increased their shorts over the past week. While commercials have bought into this thing because they probably need the actual coffee. Small specs are also net long the coffee market. It is basically just the opposite situation with coffee as with cotton. Once again thanks for the comments mark and by the way did you get my PM I sent you?
Well I owe today to my dad! I called him during study hall and talked to him about my sugar position and I asked him what I should do with the damn thing. I told him my plan was to get out around 970 but he said that I was a damn fool to get out around that level. "Its only a little over a $100 loss.....whats another couple hundred dollars if it means having a good trade that could have the potential to yield far more than a couple hundred dollars" was about his exact words. So he said I should probably hold on to it and give it more room and more time and he said it would probably work out. I am so glad I listened to him because it closed at 990 today and should get some fresh bullish momentum now. I just wish I would of bought a little more! Cotton was up a little early in the session when I checked and then it must of fallen apart. I did purchase 1 more march cotton at 64.50. Average is now 2 at 64.75. I just have a feeling this thing is gonna pop. (OH SHIT NOT THE I HAVE A FEELING AGAIN!!!!) LOL a correction here. Market closed down 4 to 970. Damn that sucks. Futuresource said that the market was up 16 today not down 4!!!! Maybe next time I should just call the broker and get a quote instead of relying on cheapass internet sites!
Well a nice day today everyone! Cotton rallied hard on expectations of economic strength which would lead to more apparel purchasing. March cotton rallied 1.58 today and closed at 65.98. We rallied just in time for the market to keep its major uptrend which I was banking my trade on along with an oversold market that had dropped about 5.00 in a very short time. The fundamentals are not very strong at all for the old crop even though we rallied hard today. I will continue to have my longs but any sign of weakness that I see will result in me exiting the market at 65.75 tomorrow. Sugar did very nicely also. A brazillian firm came in as a major stopper of a big amount of deliveries in this market today. This gave everyone a bullish stance for the day. This is a tough market to trade right now. I am still undecided on what to do with this trade. Leave right now with some money or see if we can't push higher? I don't think they can push it much lower but yet that 10.00 mark has been big resistance. I will probably look at the 970 level to exit if we trader down there again. Coffee rallied huge today. News was an agronamist for a brazillian coop came out and said the brazil coffee crop would not be as good as the trade has been expecting. I believe he forcasted 42 million bags vs the 50 million most traders are thinking. The August-October period was an extremely dry time and that supposably has hurt the brazillian crop. Although most traders believe the recent ideal conditions have been enough to erase the dryness that occured earlier. The important thing to remember here is that this estimate is the agronomists forcast only and not the official forcast from the coop. I believe the usda is issuing a report about coffee next friday but I am not for sure. I am undecided what to do here although my bias is short for the time being.
Well this morning I think im going to sell the s&p. We had basically a fluke pop yesterday. Taking us right to our downward trendline. I see resistance at 1485 and then 1500. Im going to see how the day starts off and I might short this market today. Im keeping a positive tone on sugar as long as we stay about 980. We need to break 1000 in order to gain more fresh momentum imo. Cotton like I said will be exited if we reach 65.75. Other than that 66.50 is next resistance and then 68. I fully believe we will probably stop at 66.50 and then head lower from there. This is just a pop so the market can catch its breath and then we are headed right back down. Coffee will be interesting today after the huge rally yesterday. Looking back the 131-132 level would have been a great place to short this thing. If not there 122 looks like the area.
Got short 1 dec es today at 1470. imo todays close indicates a lower trade tomorrow and here on out. I have resistance at 1485 and then 1500. Still holding on to the sugar. Took all of the gains from yesterday so im not sure what the trade is thinking here. Out of my 2 march cotton at 65.75. $1000 profit on the trade! Coffee didn't do much today it was basically range bound and I think the trade is awaiting fundamental info about the crop next week. I have long cocoa and short lumber in the back of my head. Going to do some research tonight on both of them.