Hello everyone! This is my first journal so we will see what happens. Come this August I will be starting my 2nd year in the futures markets and have learned alot over the past year about the commodity markets and look to try to capitalize on the knowledge I have gained over the past year. Most of these trades will be medium to longer term position trades in the following markets Grain,Livestock,Energy. I might trade some other contracts but these will be my main focus. Now I am still in high school so things will slow down once school starts this fall but I will still be placing trades and notifying everyone on this thread. I welcome any advice or suggestions that anyone has during this journey.
Currently am long a dec kc/chi wheat spread from approx -17. Currently at -8. Has been a whipsaw lately and offered great oppurtunities to get in and out as that is what I have done. I fully expect it to reach somewhere between 5-10 over chi.
Its opportunity. Normally I don't correct spelling but since you're a student this may come up on a test some day and you'll thank me.
Looking forward to your journal ... I dont know much about trading commodities ... So ... whats a dec kc/chi wheat spread? dont understand that. thanks
Hey thanks for the replies everyone. Bearbelly thanks for the correction! There are 3 different kinds of wheat. Hard Red Spring MGEX, Hard Red Winter KCBT, and Soft Red Winter CBOT. All traded on different exchanges. Now the main difference in each class of wheat is the protein content. With HRS having the most protein and the SRW having the least. Also the HRW and SRW are winter crops while the HRS is planted in the spring like corn and beans. Now as a rule the more protein the higher the price of the wheat. It is alot more complicated than that and would take a lengthly explanation of explaining growing and uses for the different wheats but that is the basic principle of it. Now what I did was bought the HRW and sold the SRW. The reasons for this are as follows. HRW usually always leads the wheat rally after harvest. HRW crop was absolutely terrible this year while the SRW was not as bad. When importers come to buy wheat they usually come for the HRW and the HRS not the SRW. Historically HRW is around 10 over SRW crop. I will look for an opportunity to buy the HRS over the SRW later in the year as I think the same will happen with that wheat. As for following the corn market. Yes I follow it closely. Although lately it has been less exiting and I expect it to continue being "the dog of the floor" throughout the end of the year.
Sorry about that I guess I should keep you guys informed on how the wheat spread closed on friday. The spread closed at -10'2 up about 5 cents. The spring wheat harvest will be going full bore within the next few weeks so I expect this to drag on the market and leave an opportunity to get long a Dec Minn/Chi wheat spread I will keep everyone informed on when I do this but as of now I don't think I will be doing anything soon with that. As for the corn and soybean market I see nothing to go crazy about in eather flat price or spreads. It continues to be a huge weather market that I don't wish to step in front of. Although if we get off to a good start monday the 9 cent upside gap in dec corn at 351-360 will be a huge upside target that I think could be obtained. I usually don't watch soybeans as much as wheat and corn so you will probably hear me talk mostly of corn and wheat and little about soybeans. One thing I will be looking at though is a long sep unleaded gas position. This market has been beat down pretty bad as of late and with crude looking to continue strong and break new highs we could see gas go along with it. Not to mention the seasonal tendency of gasoline to pop up through late july to mid august due to the late vacationers and driving occuring before school starts. We did pierce through the 100 day moving average at 2.0791 and holding great support at about 2.0750 on Friday. Heating Oil also looks strong at the moment and with current supply 8% below last year this market could really take off due to everyone getting there heating supplies ready for winter. A good seasonal candidate also. Technically on the sep contract we bounced off of the 50 day moving average and the trend line to continue higher on friday. I will continue my research over the weekend and will keep everyone informed on anything else I see or on any changes or new positions I make throughout the week.
OK, for tomorrow I will look at getting long sep unleaded gasoline. Would love to get it done at around 2.05 area but don't think I will get the chance. Might try 2.08 or so. Will also keep a close eye on oct heating oil. Would love to get some of that bought at around 2.08-2.09 I will keep everyone informed on what I do, when I do it, stop levels and such.
Bought 1 sep gasoline around 8:45-9:00 area at 2.0756 with stop at 2.0420 Taking some heat on it currently so we will see what happens
Wheat spread closed yesterday at -8'6 This was probably because Iraq bought 50k of hrw which is good for the spread. Like I said bought the sep gas yesterday and beat me up pretty good earlier in the session. Went within 30 ticks of my stop! Came back a little bit later in the session and is up a little this morning so I see no changes to make there.