You won't win

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by Achiever, Sep 20, 2003.

  1. What about poker?
     
    #31     Apr 13, 2004
  2. There can be no proven long-term advantage of any martingale when the casino has an edge over you except in one case: when your capital is infinite (or in practice above the capital of the Casino but then you would open a casino yourself no ? :D). This is a hard strong proven statistical theorem.

    That doesn't mean that the martingale cannot "work" sometimes but it will still be by chance. Martingale is like leverage it amplifies so the greed when it seems to work. As I said it doesn't mean it is worthless it is rather that if you are "obliged to play" a martingale can be a good strategy... but the best - if you are not obliged - would not to play at all since the God Odds is against you by Design :).

    So what oblige you to play at Casino huh ? :p

     
    #32     Apr 13, 2004
  3. "Why do you think the same 5 guys are at the finals of the world series of poker EVERY year? They're the luckiest guys in Vegas?" - Rounders
     
    #33     Apr 13, 2004
  4. Poker is not played against a bank ? Also if they are among the richiest players themselves and are of course acting rationallylike a casino is acting rationally then they are like the bank and it is not astonishing that there are at the finals ... like casinos are assured to be at the "finals".

    Poker is not a pure luck game here.

     
    #34     Apr 13, 2004
  5. As I understand it requires a great sense of bluff !
    I like this guy BRUNSON:

    http://www.pokerpages.com/articles/interviews/interviews-brunson02.htm

    DALLA: You won poker's biggest prize -- the world championship back-to-back in 1976 and 1977. You have won nine titles at the World Series of Poker, which ties you for the all-time career record. You have made millions of dollars playing poker and could retire and live comfortably. Are there still things you hope to accomplish (as a gambler)?

    BRUNSON: I think by this time, I've lost most of my ego. I'm a bottom-line guy now. Maybe it's because some other critical events that have happened in my life. I now see what the really important things in life are and they don't relate to what I do for a living. My wife Louise and I -- we lost a daughter several years ago (Doyla was a freshman at UNLV, and died suddenly at age 18). That made me came to the realization that I was fooling myself with some things.
     
    #35     Apr 13, 2004
  6. damir00

    damir00 Guest

    for the most part, yeah. i doubt there are more than 6 regular posters on ET who even have an idea how often "by chance" wins - though there are some who seem to have an empirical feel for it (which is a super thing to have).
     
    #36     Apr 13, 2004
  7. If you can win in poker, why not in Black Jack? I suppose you can win in poker, even if you play against a bank?
     
    #37     Apr 13, 2004
  8. traderob

    traderob

    Because playing blackjack is like playing a machine. The Bank must follow certain rules, no emotion comes in (on the Banks side).
    Playing poker you are playing against people who will make errors, take wild risks etc. If you can be the machine in poker you can maybe make a little over time.
     
    #38     Apr 13, 2004
  9. That's a dangerous analogy to use. No wonder people don't trade better.

    Blackjack and trading are very different animals. In blackjack, the absolute best you can have is what, 1/2%, maybe 1% over the house.

    The odds in trading are completely different. Most people lose, not because of strategy, but because of mindset. Guys like Rogers, Soros, Buffet, Neiderhoffer, these people do not have 1% advantages over the house.

    Jim Rogers has one of the best performing funds in the world right now, his Rogers Commodity fund is up over 160% since starting in 1998. I'd rather be a contrarian than to be a card counter.
     
    #39     Apr 15, 2004
  10. A MUCH fatter edge will give you drawdowns that are EASY to
    survive and sit through unlike blackjack.

    Poor analogy.

    peace

    axeman
     
    #40     Apr 15, 2004