Over time, I am more convinced than not of the hypothesis that markets are a random walk. For the long term investor, however, I believe there is an edge in market indices. I also believe there might be traders in VIX who might have edges if they limit themselves to conditions such as sell VIX only at high values and after a crisis has ended, or short puts(on vix) at very low vix. These are beliefs. They are not facts or truths. These statements are for myself only, and for no one else.
400 pips is not a random walk. If you believe that there is an edge to indices, then why short into the drift-thesis? Dude, you edits ex-post-facto are getting tiresome. Just admit you have no f*cking clue what you're talking about.
Some of you may have read that the direction of markets is decided in first 20 minutes of trading ( I do not recall the exact percentage number). In the theory of random walks, similar things happen. The first 5% would decide about 15% of the outcomes. 5% of one day is ~ 20 minutes.
Nice job, -30 on the day. Where's NoDoji with her bullish symmetrical triangle? I'd like to hear more, purely as a fade. Futs down, it was a daytrade. Futures up 4 later on budget news? It was a swing trade. Futures down 30? It's a daytrade.