You Name It... The Models Time It..

actionzip54 · Dec 9, 2013

After reading this guy's other posts are you going to take anything he says seriously?

tradingjournals · Dec 9, 2013

SPY at 181.44. Model xx signals a short size 1/16. Next shorting level 182.10.

Lucrum · Dec 9, 2013

Quote from tradingjournals:

SPY at 181.44. Model xx signals a short size 1/16. Next shorting level 182.10.
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What kind of "model" has a retail trader averaging into losers?
Having to do so is nothing but confirmation the original signal was wrong.

tradingjournals · Dec 9, 2013

Quote from tradingjournals:

SPY at 181.44. Model xx signals a short size 1/16. Next shorting level 182.10.
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SPY at 181.42. Model xx signal: second 1/16 short size.

tradingjournals · Dec 10, 2013

SPY at 181.05. Model xx signal: short add of 1/4 size.

tradingjournals · Dec 10, 2013

Was at the thread 'Son of..." few moments ago. I wanted to know why the QQQ was behaving the way it was. I found out that people at that thread were bullish. That explained it. It is now at 86.40. Why are they buying it?

So I add this:

Quote from tradingjournals:

qqq at 86.40 is in my view a short. 86.40 is where it is now.
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Maverick74 · Dec 10, 2013

TJ, tell me what your model says about this:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=221311

Can you "time" it?

tradingjournals · Dec 10, 2013

I knew you were reading--A person like you cannot stay away from this thread.

As for what the model says, I do not click on links.

Maverick74 · Dec 10, 2013

Here you go champ!

Quote from tradingjournals:

I created an account of $100 to trade it for the purpose of this journal, which is to run a number of experiments that would involve (1) some new entry/exit methods I developed as approximations of some more demanding trading models, (2) some new money management methods, and (3) to ascertain whether small-money vs. big-money has effects on trading psychology.

I would be interested in reading input from experienced traders on how to keep a journal, whether it is worth it, and the metrics one should use to decide whether a journal is worth keeping.

You can make your bets on which would come first: The double of the $100, or its turning to ashes. My vote is the A., but I would not hate to be proved wrong.

Since $100 is small, I plan to trade currencies since one can trade with small amounts such as $100 sizes.

Inputs and questions are generally not welcome, except from the real experienced traders or the real newbies who want to exchange views on trading.

Also no input from sponsors is welcome here, as I do not wish to see sponsors jump on the thread and post filler material just to appear in front of traffic.

I reserve the rights to the content of this thread. I also reserve the right to move this thread and its content to a blog.

Let us start with a question. Suppose that one cannot stay in a trade beyond a time T (2 hours, 1 day, whatever). So the exposure time is fixed, but a trade can be closed early, and of course cannot be kept open after T time has elapsed since its opening.

Q1: what are your favorite probs of success and the corresponding risk/reward?

Q2. What is the theoretical payoff you would consider excellent? Payoff is here defined as expected value of gains divided by expected value of losses.

Q3: Assuming an efficient market, is there a max value for the ratio in Q2?
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drownpruf · Dec 10, 2013

Status of your short EURJPY risk-reward please? You were down nearly 400 pips as of this morning. How's that one impacting your stats? How does it rank on your "theoretical payoff" rank? Excellent?