So here's my ride from 3317.25 to 3581.75 for 264.5 points with a pairs trade to hedge when riding 2 long for that much reversing to only 1 short in a 2:1:2 pyramid. Charts don't lie they all give you the same information but it's what you do with where it's been that determines where it probably goes on through support and resistance lines that are clearly marked on the chart and currently long less than 10 points from the next higher low. This chart is the trend following Price Physics Algorithm as explained by Bill Schamp written according to the 120+ page white paper that deserves the Nobel Prize in Economics. As a background to new readers: The Theory of Price Physics is a white paper self-published document for sale around $700 but practically useless without the algorithms that label the charts so I took the labels and timed them according to the advanced genetic algorithm programming Multicharts is capable of so if any of you have a chart to show that did better than this I know nobody beat this particular up-trend and it will probably spot the next down trend close to highs after it has gone down somewhat. Otherwise I see a bull trend still on the chart so until there's a lower low it was more than easy to tell TJ if price is selling below market value there might be more of a reason than just to say look at the price because as a side note you will learn to trade by reading that book but I've found my use for the charts was actually in swing trading but you can adapt times for entry and exit intraday but you won't make the amount of money that's shown in the chart I was following through this entire thread. In real time the entries and exits with regard to the pairs trades hedges netted over 35 points and were immediately reversed per the previous comments I've made in this thread.
Nice run-on sentence. Is that another savant trait? I'm not concerned with a single trade, though. I'd like to see proof that you've outperformed the S&P 500 for the last two years (or more). If you have it, send a link. If not, this conversation is over.
So the post mortem TJ and why I don't respond to the value of any of your recommendations is because there's little doubt in my mind that you may have developed some timing models, but they are trying to catch a down move too soon and that you're actually leaving money on the table moreso worrying about the Hershey type down so that you should certainly be shorting at highs, but not if they are still breaching previous highs. When my models identify uptrends they don't sell areas that are going beyond the previous high. This is part of price physics logic. If you saw a price move up from the lowest most recent point, this is called a higher low, and only mechanical mathematics can explain the settling that's only available through e-signal or barchart in 16,807 constant volume bar chart calculations because if the nature of Price is to be as comparable to the atom as a quanta, the quanta in this case is the market, it's high low close and opening prices that when they start to "level out" or appear to have "come down from highs" mathematically I've seen attempts to articulate this using minute based charts but the reason Price Physics works so well is because you've eliminated the question of when and non-linearity if you use contract volume bar charts because that is the quanta and it is still price. The quanta will tell you where it has been as in a topological probability space inspired by one of my other trading models but more into the price physics some markets just don't have a lot of volatility to offer and relatively speaking their relativity to other previous highs and lows going down the teachings ascribed to my perfect understanding of the model and theory do not need to look for positions to where quanta has moved to because how long the quanta takes will determine how much money you can make even before doing analysis or optimization that particular theory is so much better than the slightly more advanced trades that a momentum based algorithm will typically look for. I think where the flaw you have in the model is waiting for points to be higher so you can short and I don't have a problem with that it's just that when points start to move down it doesn't appear that the model was identifying a specific enough type of entry so that all your autostops will be hit if you even have them. When the trades r:r is high it's not because you did so with little risk, I'm sure you see now that there was way more risk to the exact percentage I described in your previous threads, that risk should not be taken unless a non-extremum indicator has been used so that the model is not bounded and can move through all numbers without ever having the same exact value from point to point. I believe you were using minute based charts and only around periods of 5 to 15 minutes have I seen the velocity you appear to be measuring to try to catch when that move will end but as I said before, price physics doesn't always do that, and trend followers don't only use trend following models. In my experience, I can only stand to be daytrading commodities like corn and gas for so long before it becomes gambling and that's why there are optimized time based exits not measured in bar from entry but in actual time. Consider the use of certain hours of the day as being more likely to give positive results but for the most part the exits on the q's and spy STILL haven't been reported and if you want to man up and guess where it's going to go next if I have to explain, higher low, breach, higher low, where I bought, breach, higher low, hold, breach, profit target, now at higher low and I'm not trying to tell you you're not smart or your stupid but you really don't know how to trade because, guess what, the next one is another breach since the higher lows keep forming the market goes higher and in terms of price physics every single chart is plotted like that and it is only a matter of taking extensive hundreds of ours of genetic optimization and I won't say experimentation because the codes I was given were truly a blessing but you have to be a genius to have figured out how to use them the way I have so I'm not going to indulge in my intelligence anymore. Getting offered 2 $75,000 out of High School as a 17 year old with the 3rd Highest United States Navy's Nuclear Aptitude proficiency test (NAPT) should tell you that unless you really do understaned physics and this isn't philosophy and I resent the sophistry argument about him so much that unless he actually told you the mathematics of his theory I always knew Bill Schamp was legitimate and Hershey was not, but there certainly was a time I approached Jack in a more friendly way because it had become impossible for his programs to continue working. Getting back to quanta, you make price a quanta by using constant volume bar charts, and that way if you find the right 7th exponential the market analysis is strictly tertiary in the sense that while 16,807 works GREAT on market timing swing trades, you have to do a little soul searching (ahem, coding, hundreds of hours), before getting to a point where you can make that research payoff and I am not just going to say this but knowing how to better use the tools to your technological understanding of how genetic algorithms are not the same type of neural net bot you get from purely fantastical "real curve fits" where the candlestick bars simply try to arbitrage something on every bar when really if they were the constant volume bar price would be perfect in the sense that only it's volume is represented on your chart and so as it moves doing using a momentum based technical indicator, the theories you have tried to spot moves to a place and not to where they are because where they have been is more indicative of future direction than you will ever know and I tried to emphasize that by offering you waves in an ocean. The point I make before you get confused is that the difference in financial markets modeling is that it is all right to assume that the ocean won't ever hit a shore and that's why it keeps going up so until there's lower lows you'll only get buys that wait to see if there's a moment near the top where price can't possibly go any higher and that's where it shorts. I've been on the losing side of shorts too many times to know even though they don't last long I've got too much experience understanding that what clickpoint daytraders don't understand is that there size is what makes it seem like they're winning, and moving money to the point and click methods that would have probably been better are the kinds of people who get "backers" and you asked what value for the model you should charge and the answer is don't embarrass yourself by trying to sell it because no one would buy. Mixing q's etf stocks with forex is amateur. Forex is a beast I'd only trade 6 futures on since the commodity is not in a unit that is always one so when prices change it didn't change because it's moving to the where it came from but to where it's going, and that's why if we were to call each higher low breach higher low formation there were two of those before the chart above showed to try to short so that if you do have a way to identify it, you have to start from the right kind of information because measuring markets in units of time is non-linear whereas you can make the chart a linear instrument by changing to a unit of volume composed in increments 7^x. Maybe the 7^x where 6^x could be better that particular Fibonacci number has no more significance than that is where the final November Version of Price Physics was sent to me shortly after my last Thanksgiving in 2009 in Kansas City I knew I had to devote my life not just to really studying the white paper I mentioned as a gift from Bill Schamp but I was given the database he has so that with the code I could design my own logic for certain markets, and I'm not going to lie to you, he'd given me algorithm code to a type of indicator known as the ergodic oscillator that a man called in my Senior year at Centre College asking me about that particular indicator so now after graduating 2006 in 2009 this code was made available to me because I'd been in the loop ever since a junior running my family's investment club called the Nexial Investment Club where I got a handle on how to distinguish the right price of options theory that while you do want to arbitrage price, the only thing you have to remember is giving the right amount of room from the low for it to make a reversal is not possible with time based slow lagged logarithmic bars so if you see quanta as being the volume, the price is contained in a fashion that will separate out the non-linearity caused by lack of relativity to the amount of time involved in the datapoints you've chosen to analyze. This I would recover as to saying too much about why 16,807 bars are perfect for NASDAQ, other markets may not be as good on the same setting so with different volume 7th exponential increments, you can use the theory on any market as long as you've got an idea of the volatility ranges it's possible to capture on some of the more higher frequency trading models you can develop from the exact same codes I have.
Even if I'm not helping you, the point is Higher Low BREACH Higher Low BREACH HIGHER LOW FUCK YEAH BUY! BREACH BABY! Most recent higher low took a signal in delayed data but not in real time so while the chart shows long the more refined clean data coming from closer to Chicago where my models are run do not see that the higher low has actually formed since it didn't classify what's there as being stretched to such an extreme that if the slightest turn would indicate a level at which to go long, it only does so after it has come down from the latest breach. The next oscillation is anyone's guess but since delayed data appears to be less optimal to use in live trading, the computer I use in from 2007 an extreme 970 Dual Core that's carried me through my life of development and it is the reason I have money to show because while the results had high r:r at first the mechanism that's trigger the sell points are not optimized and any indicator you use should work to time exits just as much as entries and systems that strictly rely on hard and fast buy sell targets with no indicator aid in the exit as well are particularly where you need to work on getting a computer like mine to do the genetic algorithmic testing you've got to understand is another facet to what I do and my own genius. Please note, I use 3 algorithms for trading and have owned APPL for a long time. I trade futures as my sole income and collect subscriptions on certain websites. When the points along a curve or axis mark a change from concave down to concave up, the third derivative can be measured by the oscillator I mentioned but the storing of all the data points along the way is required to be so you have to have the codes and even then you probably still wouldn't understand why if price is a quanta, and quanta is price, the price is to the wave as the wave is to the quanta, therefore quanta cannot know what time it is without knowing what price it's at, and, trust me, Bill Schamp's a genius and I don't have to tell you his algorithms shouldn't be expected to be anything but an adaptation to the ideas of waves in an ocean with no shore and also to a quanta knowing speed and velocity as measured by the momentum of a particular secret indicator called the ergodic oscillator.
For those who do more than position trade (see above fractal being used), it is possible to take full moves and always know that you know a trend is continuing to further extremes or a reversal is called for. View the 5 minute chart attached hereto and madea part herof. do a P&L for the blowinsky chart and this one day chart. Discern the money velocity of position trading compared to intraday trading where the full offer of the market is taken. Notice also that the position trading sacrifices the ability to compound. Just fill in an equation for the annual ROI of each method.
sorry chart did not stick. The red and black boxes indicate a reversal; other boxes indicate a "hold thru". The net was 77.50% on capital for the day.
Jack, Thank you for posting the chart. What information did you use in order to decide not to reverse on the b turn on Bar 6, or the c turns on Bar 26, Bar 63, or Bar 74? Can you post some information on the MADA routine for reversal vs. "hold thru"?
This is the key and final question for the 20 days of learning. I can see you now understand the EE their respective turns and how to do bar by bar monitoring and analysis. that being the case, you can now choose to trade with respect to a given market fractal. this chart shows how the 30 minute fractal is traded using the five minute bar by bar annotaion process. congrats on working hard enough to build your mind.