You're way, way too wedded to an investor's view of the market. This is a trading site. I don't know about anyone else around here, but I took a trading view strictly after Enron, Global Crossing, WorldCom, and then 2008. Most business balance sheets are obviously fiction and that means any analysis based on fundamentals is just piling fiction on top of fiction. But you insist on citing stuff like earnings, a fiction if ever there was one, to justify a bullish view of the overall market. I was bullish in the fall of '10, when I agreed with you. I'm not now. That would be fine, but I get extremely impatient with folks who try to justify a particular level of prices on the markets via earnings. Confidence, the possession of or the lack thereof, is really the only reason the markets go up and down. With it, you can justify a multiple of 40 on some purported level of "earnings". Without it, a multiple of 10 is a hard ceiling to crack. Keynes thought investing was about fundamentals, and trading about deciphering investor psychology. I've come to the conclusion that it's ALL about deciphering investor psychology. Nothing else matters. Oh, and use the ignore button. Scumbags like Larson deserve no less.
One of the most useful signals this year on EliteTrader was when Shortie got super bullish on the SPY this summer. Market tanked not much later.
ETer's...its time to stop this banter, this useless chat. Why dont you start making some choice calls so that Baron can make some money. All this banter and calls for the next apocalypse are not helping. In this thread, I will make 3 calls. #1) The top is in for gold. #2) The top is in for bonds...especially the munis and Meredith Whitney will be redeemed in time. #3) The bottom is in for equities and especially semi-conductors. This site is what you make of it. If you want to go on fighting and posting up useless banter and chat then go for it, but you are losing out! Join me in my quest in making choice calls and finding the best stocks to buy right now!!!
I had been on ET a long time back. Then, did some stupid things, like buy futures, and I thought I was an expert, because I had my hot little brokers license, in hand. Got pawned, not like lose cars or house, but super quick limit down on a Monday. Took a long, long break like till now. My opinion , like chaos, it's where you go in here, and I've found some threads that I'm working through, that are brain paradigm shifters. Total turnaround, that would have taken years to figure on my own, if I was even able to figure them out. I'm at a relearning stage and trying to get my brain around some concepts, and I don't need books or software or anything. So, don't be hurt. Just choose where to go and if somebody is being stupid then start a different thread.
Buddy, I posted live go long the TSX on August 8th ( 11,660 ). Its up around 7% since then. At the time, everyone and their uncle were declaring that markets were in a freefall crash. Their still doing it, only difference is anyone following my call is 7% better off. Your quest for choice calls just isn't going to happen, the board is full of idiots with very little real skill in trading. I think Baron lacks the insight to run a true trading site; its a chatter site for wannabees, shit disturbers, and some of the craziest mother fucker's you'll ever meet.
Buddy - I agree with most of your views in this thread except this: you see, Baron is running the EXACT right board for him: a board full of idiots and wannabes - and he sells ads accordingly to retail platforms (I'll be charitable here since not all advertisers are scums here). Real traders and market participants are somewhere else; They don't socialize with each other here except, perhaps, posting anonymous here as an amusing diversion.
Are the forums really to get tips from other traders. Isn't that their job. Getting someone else to do it is like stealing. I thought the forums were a way of training traders and giving them the opportunity to gain the knowledge they need to trade. Not getting someone else to do their job for them.