You know you love the big guy...he's BAAAACK

Discussion in 'Politics' started by AAAintheBeltway, Aug 2, 2003.

  1. bubba7


    for readers, I would suggest that Mr Market use his skills , training and attitude to really make some money.

    his scanning process can be straamlined . It is overkill for getting a universe of top notch stocks. Simplify it by just taking out the redundancy.

    If that is not done then okay.

    With this focused and terrific universe, make use of it in a different way.

    Cull for high betas. This simple function with high quality stocks gives you a list of real movers.

    Skip the 15% as a target.

    Look at the moves these babies make. I scan like Mr Market does with one scan to pull top quality stocks.

    I get the movers with tha attached assessment sheet. The rank score puts them on my short list.

    When they hit a bottom, I am in and I take the 3 beta ride and exit at their peaks.

    The Dry Up volume on the assessment sheet is how they come infor a landing in their trough part of the cycle.

    In the AM the volume breaks out and an hour later the price moves off the bottom.

    In 6 to 8 days the price peaks during a two day period. The volume peaks a day before and one of the peaking price days.

    Making 10% on such a move is only 50% efficient for what's on the table.

    Imagine being employed and not watching the market during trding hours. what is the result. Well you look in the evening and see the break out of volume then price on a 30 min chart. You place he order the next morning. say you miss 15% of the move. When the sell comes you see it in the evening of the first day. you exit with an order the next morningwithin the first two hours. Here you probably catch the peak. say you miss by 15%.

    This means you only catch 70% of the trend. Well that is okay.

    Try starting out this way . I made 7 out of 8 plays on the average.

    It take 9 plays to double. Take the 8 days and you have spent 8 weeks doubling. You can do that 7 times a year.

    I started this way in 1957. But there was no PC or no Scanning or no charting or no assessment on a computer. I got daily data only. I pencilled graphs on a sheet I blue printed for a graph. I looked for 3 betas by plotting for a while. I saved WSJ pages so I could pencilback plots.

    300 bucks plus salary contributions gave me a mercedes in three years picked up in copenhagen. Somehow it seems like any body ought to do better than Mr. Market.
    #41     Aug 12, 2003
  2. ...Nicely said Jack...and you did it in a little less then 10, 000 words...i think....maybe 9,800

    I think MM is an alright picker however...after finally doing a little research , I too noticed that he tends to pick stocks that already had a 25-35% run up due to a sector run up and all he is doing is capturing the last 10-15 % , which is not bad in this market...but the greatest stock pickers in the world give you a company before the breakout not after,
    #42     Aug 12, 2003
  3. bubba7


    Yes picking before BO is the key.

    That's why the journal I do for equities is entitled what it is.

    To replace Mr. Market's scans just use one scan.
    The scan breaks into three sublists:

    1. Stocks going to break out in a couples of days.

    2. Stocks going to break out tomorrow, and

    3. Stocks that broke out today or yesterday. Do the scan in the evening.

    They are very high quality stocks.

    After you get the three lists you put them in separate portfolios and bulk review them and score and assess them on the assessment sheet.

    A beginner using this for 6 months net the following 11.1$ profit per trade and 6.6 day average holding time.

    125 days divided by 6.6 days is about 18 trades.

    The beginner who did it was using my 4xdaily emails of my short lists before the present sites were available we were using TC2000 Ver 3.0 before 2000 and before they canned support for Ver 3.0. Those were the dark ages compared to nowadays.

    the scan is done with Set up with EPS and RS to get the length of the list correct. If it is long use higher EPS and RS values. If it is short in length lower the values. Having both EPS and RS high guarantees you will make money.

    Set up to not see stocks under 10 dollars. How you sort the list to rank it is what gives you the three groups above.

    the first group is in the middle. the second group is at the bottom. the third group is at the top.

    This is a miracle that I designed. lol no one ever could have thought it up. I need to tell you how to sort it to get it to work. Sort by % increase in daily volume.

    Cross our some stocks. Low volume at bottom. If they are not liquid enough you can't trade in and out. I trade 100,000 shares in a dya as a max for one slug of capital sometimes. Some ET people do not have this problem.

    at the top for list three, you need to cross out the stocks who day price was red (meaning down).

    make list only 10 stocks long. do list three first going down. do list two going up from bottom then do list one last going up from where list two ended.

    Make up30 assessment sheets and fill them in from data on the portfolio site. The site is Three portfolios are needed and you name them by the list. The first ten to do are on list 2 because you can start to make money with them tomorrow. I did HOV on MR Market as an example. You saw it go to 15% in a few days instead of NFC. List 1 can be done next. Do not do list 3 the first week just look in clearstation so you see how making money works.

    Do this every friday.

    In a while you will have a list that repeats itself over and over. some times I do 7 cycles a year on one stock. Here is a typicalnumber of shares for first three cycles 9,000, 12,000, 28,000. You can see how things change fairly olidly.

    MR market has to trade 13 streams to make 15%. Here we do 1 stream and rotate another stock into place every 6 to 8 days.

    You have a proclivity of always bitching about my posts.

    some day you can count the words in this one and divide it into the capital you have by doing this. Try it about three years out after getting this down.

    The beginner I quoted above drove over from California in his custom built freightliner towing a custom built 32 foot trailer. He was on leave of absence from his job and in his late 30's. he bought the items i mentioned for cash. He decided to send in his resignation the day I met him. He also decided to put a retractable DTN disk on his trailer. His California home was just going to be abase of operations. he only watched the market for two hours a day when he watched. he did most of his investing while wh worked a job for several months. The 6 months test was done part aftr hours and part watching for 2 hours a day.

    I magine trading the 13 streams of money MR Market has there (wasting away for years even).

    If a person has what I started with it may seem small (300 bucks plus some salary for a year or so). If a person has 5,000, 10,000 or 20,000 he can double it on 9 trades over 8 x 9days or 72 days. Call it a doubling every 10 weeks. Doubling 5 times a year.

    Count the words, divide it into the capital you could have made in three years. See what a word is worth.

    You want to know what's going up the next day. Here is an answer that has worked for 47 years. Now that the PC is here it gets a little easier.

    Divide the number of words into my best day net just for laughs.
    #43     Aug 12, 2003
  4. bubba7


    Imagine if they were in a p-lace where people could see tham and use them for investing. lol
    #44     Aug 12, 2003
  5. Qarel


    bubba7 posted 2 overviews of Mr. Market's current holdings.
    One showed the status at 8/1, the other at 8/12. Mr. Market's
    home page currently shows the stats per 8/20, so I thought
    that it might be nice to extend the list. I use only percentages.
    If you want to reassure yourself that Mr. Market is really holding
    stocks for longer than 6 weeks, you are free to go to for all the hideous details.
    Here's the list:

    Stock 8/01 8/12 8/20
    PTSI -11.4% -14.2% -8.2%
    AXL -16.7% -15.5% -8.1%
    CHKE -12.1% -12.8% 0.0%

    MDC 2.7% 6.7% 11.5%
    GRMN -16.7% -21.0% -15.1%
    WRLD 2.5% -5.8% -11.2%

    COH 3.1% 0.8% 8.4%
    WSB -10.5% -15.2% -14.1%
    AMHC -17.6% -20.6% -13.7%

    NARA -1.4% -4.7% 5.4%
    DKS -9.4% -8.1% 1.3%
    SFCC -3.7% -8.2% 11.2%

    ESI -.-- 0.8% 8.9%

    Tot. -91.2% -124.3% -32.6%
    Avg. -6.5% -8.9% -2.3%

    The average is calculated over 14 slots and is supposed to be
    a proxy for the overall loss of the port. Please don't think that
    an upswing like from 8/12 to 8/20 is any indication of the quality
    of Ernie's picks. Conclusions could only be drawn over a much
    longer time frame. Perhaps the consideration that all his
    transactions from January 2001, starting with an empty port,
    now show a total return of over 80%, comes a little closer.


    #45     Aug 27, 2003

  6. are you freinds with Alice??????
    #46     Aug 27, 2003
  7. I think you can sum it up qualitatively by saying that:

    "$$$MR. MARKET$$$ is the greatest stock picker on the planet."
    #47     Aug 27, 2003

  8. Welcome back our knight in hairy armor!!!
    #48     Aug 27, 2003
  9. Qarel


    No. I like to call myself a friend of MrMarket. I also like 80+
    percent returns over the past 20 months. Not as good as
    bubba7 who is doubling his money every 8 weeks or so,
    of course. If he only doubled his money once a year, and
    only invested $300 once at the beginning in 1957, that
    would put him at way over 5,000,000,000,000,000 today.
    Errm, yes.


    #49     Aug 27, 2003
  10. OK ...You are Alice....How you been sweetie?
    Please do not poke fun at jack's system unless you are also willing to have MM's system abused as well....% returns are a funny thing....ex: You have 2 positions...100 shares od JDSU at 2.50 and 1000 shares of Dell at 30.00,,,,,Dell drops 1.o point.....But jdsu goes up 2.1/2 points... sure on paper you have 100% winner and ONLY a slight loser in dell.....#'s can be manipulated any way you want
    #50     Aug 27, 2003