You know you love the big guy...he's BAAAACK

Discussion in 'Politics' started by AAAintheBeltway, Aug 2, 2003.

  1. bubba7



    Hold over a year old
    PTSI 4/15/2002 24.84 22.00 -11.4% 28.9
    AXL 5/20/2002 34.73 28.92 -16.7% 40.2
    CHKE 5/22/2002 21.50 18.90 -12.1% 24.9
    MDC 7/10/2002 46.59 47.85 2.7% 54.0

    Over 6 weeks hold limit
    GRMN 5/23/2003 45.91 38.23 -16.7% 53.1
    WRLD 6/3/2003 14.43 14.79 2.5% 16.8
    COH 6/9/2003 51.49 53.10 3.1% 59.8

    Still within Hold range
    WSB 6/30/2003 10.67 9.55 -10.5% 12.4
    AMHC 7/14/2003 41.00 33.80 -17.6% 47.6
    NARA 7/25/2003 18.91 18.65 -1.4% 21.9
    DKS 7/29/2003 39.99 36.23 -9.4% 46.3
    SFCC 7/30/2003 26.01 25.04 -3.7% 30.0

    Available cash stream based on past holds

    Stream A

    Partial Winners (3):
    10 to 15%
    5 to 9%
    0 to 4%

    loss over 15%
    10 to 15% loss
    5 to 9% loss
    0 to 4% loss

    Streams not invested (1):
    Stream A.


    A couple of months ago Mr market's capital reached a peak. Now it is in decline overall. A test of any start up investment system is how the initial capital works. He started with two streams and added capital continually. For profits to represent additional investment streams there is a trade off between how many streams represent one profit cycle advance and how many cycles are required to form a new stream. Currently he has 13 streams running when he maxed out on streams.

    A second test is when the worth of units of applied capital peaks. He has added capital continually and the worth of units of applied capital peaked in the first quarter.

    Currently all of his partial winners are equal to 1/2 the losses of his single worst held loser AMHC. Currently, he has a loosing money velocity equivalent to 8 1/2 units of applied capital in a context where it takes 13 winners to advance his capital 15%.

    Currently, the total capital is shrinking at a rate faster than any time of capital addition in the history of the investment system.

    It is difficult to imagine how logging consecutive winners has any relationship to making money.

    This guy has thrown additional outside capital at this thing since the beginning and now it is losing money at the fastest clip it ever has.

    It will be stunning to see how he applied his uninvested cash to the next filtered and culled best investment. All 5 of the stocks he has selected that remain within his target hold period are losers atthis point.
    #21     Aug 3, 2003
  2. Bolts


    Well let's cut straight to the point. The big guy knows exactly what he's doing. He's not a good investor, but he's not fooling himself either, he's fooling other people and he knows it. And he's not gonna stop.
    #22     Aug 3, 2003
  3. So basically, a good strategy would be to fade his trades, wait for 10% profit an exit. :D
    #23     Aug 3, 2003
  4. bubba7


    His strategy is to pick off the ends of IT run ups.

    Cut out about three of his filters to just get the beginnings of run ups instead.

    The culling in three steps could be "fixed". He should do a volatility thing to get say a 3 beta level and skip the fundamental analysis; you can see his Roxbury stuff drives it instead of Wharton stuff..

    Lastly, he could take the combo of the two above and apply money management and timing.

    To sqeese to your 10% will increase the turn over ratio to about 40 annually up from his 7.

    The timing is a toughy, his effort is based on evening stuff and blind am entries. The easy way is to use pro rata volume if you live out west. you can just keep a culled list and go in when the volume BO occurs. You have about an hour to get around to entering. Exit on second day of peaking volume before 11:00 am est.
    #24     Aug 3, 2003
  5. Romeo


    Rambling on and on about mr. monkey, turning him into a hairy martyr. You people have nothing better to discuss? You all look incredibly stupid.

    Mr. monkey is no better than a surging bull market. And now that it's stopped surging, his picks are no good either.

    #25     Aug 3, 2003
  6. If you didn't notice the discussion has moved from MrMarket to stock picking strategies.
    #26     Aug 3, 2003
  7. mrmarket's trading sux...why do u ppl bother following him
    #27     Aug 3, 2003
  8. Pound


    AAA...when you are trading multi-million dollar (or in most mutual fund's cases: multi-BILLION dollar) accounts you are very limited as to rules/regulations on when/how often you can trade. You pretty much HAVE TO be in the market at ALL times.

    So, don't compare a guy who has had a "winning streak" to a mutual fund manager (who in most cases can't even short the market). It is not a practical comparison.

    It is like a mutual fund manager coming on this board and arguing that he just made a 45million dollar profit in 6 months (like Janus does) and then laying the hammer down on all the traders on this board and saying, "try to do that".

    No one has that kind of money.

    Also, trading 10-20k shares is much easier than holding a 1million Share trade for x amount of time.

    There are just too many factors that separate that "world" from ours (traders).

    #28     Aug 3, 2003
  9. Pound


    sounds like this guy can't even believe his trades are going the right way. Classic newbie syndrome in an UP market.

    what can you say.

    #29     Aug 3, 2003
  10. I can just see the new Fidelity ad campaign: " Don't compare us to a weightlifter who picks stocks in his spare time on yahoo."
    #30     Aug 4, 2003