You know what blows me away about being a discretionary trader? How one slip....

Build a game that you KNOW you can always win......ALWAYS stick to YOUR game and you will always be in position to win.

It is always when you go off and try to play a different game when you can get your head chopped off.

 

All of you are probably systematic traders to a certain degree. Throw darts at the newspaper and trade? You're systematic. Look at lunar cycles? Read price action? Level II? Chart Pattern by hand? Systematic x 4.

All of you are discretionary. Decide to trade your system? Discretionary. Decide to use stops? Decide to based stop on 3x ATR? Decide gaps have an edge? Decide something isn't random by 99% confidence interval? Discretionary x 5.

There are levels of discretion and automation for everyone here. Find what works for you, and decide what kind of risks you want to take. Want to hide in a bunker and get 1% returns? Meet hyperinflation and sovereign default. Want to bungee jump out of a helicopter at 3000 feet over Niagra Falls? Maybe you get a 200% return this year.

Harness risk, understand your risks as best you can, understand you don't understand all possible risks to you, and then go for it. No guarantees. This is why you'll hear some of the very best "mechanical" and "discretionary" traders say "...a little luck helps".

 

Yupe I did miss that one. The diversification of a ATS automatically outdoes a discretionary trader.

 

NAH, i am mellow these days, HA I decided it was not worth arguing with the ET crowd so i just lob in a grenade now and then.

Amt, i am not saying you are wrong (even if Minnesota disowned you and only Texas allowed you in) about commercials. Your statement about them selling when price is rising makes no difference to me as LONG as price is rising and i am LONG. I do not follow volume like you do. Your work has value (the only value in Texas is no state income tax) for your style and thats all fine and good. Keep up the good work (Texas has plenty of losers so you actually are a breathe of fresh air aside from cow dung and crude oil smell in West Texas). :eek: All in fun, ha.

I have refined my trading down to where it is so simple based on old hat stuff i actually keep thinking i COULD automate ...............but push comes to shove i can not get away from flying the fighter plane on pure manual...............yes i know, todays jumbo jets are computer automated and can fly while the pilot is sending text message to some bimbo on the ground as the plane flys past Minnesota by 300 miles. Pilots still screw up and always will. A trader has no excuses like .............DUHHH, i was reading the manual from the company and the jumbo jet did not land itself in minnesota, Sorry FAA.

Try and automate this: Work a breakout idea for the 1st hour. My pal range trades the dead zone and i work the breakouts.

Switch tactics after the 1st hour.
Do supp/resist trades based on my how i see them only.
Work 'continuations"
Work the reversals.
After a reversal is confirmed repeat the support/resist points until the day ends. That all sounds easy in text, but in the real dogfight much is hidden from view. The hidden part is where automation is not as easy as many assume. Surely many do it with code, more power to them.

I was going to do live calls for Nod just as she decided to drop her journal. Let me clarify, LIVE calls about what i see and anticipate, NOT live trades. Clowns that do not know how to trade will never learn from others calling trades......trading is individual sport and anyone wanting live calls on the internet are fools. I offered some tidbits on this ET, but i offer no crutch for losers. Calling trades for others is a joke because just calling out a BUY or SELL does NOT transmit what mental inputs go into a trade, intuition is more than technical analysis. Either learn how to trade or just fade away i say.

I am willing to give automation a shot for a PART of trading.
She is working on 3 strats 1. First hour ORB 2. Support/resist continuation stuff 3. reversals, then repeat backwards the supp/resist. Wish us luck.

PS: Amt can handle ribbing..........so can i as long as the other guy has a brain.

 

Nod talks about the “probability factor” and the casino comparison of not picking and choosing and that’s why they win…she is only partially correct.

There is a big difference in the casino edge and the trading. Casino games have a fixed/defined mathematical advantage and that’s why they can take all the bets –BUT they are WELLL AWARE their winning advantage is a small % and the luck factor can break them and that’s WHY they have table limits.

Casino owners are superior risk managers to us traders…their so good that when they feel/see a card counter taking the advantage –they shuffle that deck down or ask you to leave or even worse now-shuffle up after every hand (as they do in many top casino’s in Europe)

None of us can precisely define the “edge” in trading and what that # is-even going back at your last 50-100-1000 trades can not forecast the future-too many unlimited possibilities can happen ( and do)…there are NO unlimited possibilities of things going wrong in the casino.

And Nod gives us the classic example: the 4 trades with the “right” set-up. She makes an INCORRECT assumption that all 4 trades are = and have the same probability of success-THEY DON’T… and no formula can DEFINE what the probability is of each of those 4 trades- therefore we do our best as traders to pick which one is the “right one”-and many times we face the outcome she describes- NEVER will happen in a casino

We all know you must have an “edge” to win - so please-someone, tell us what and how they come up with that % advantage …is it +2%, 4% 10%?

Even starting hands in poker is defined…I would like to see when someone makes a call in a trade or series of trades WHAT that % edge of success is- ( we aint NEVER going to see it!)

Happy Valentines Day…

 

wrong, if you're +ev in a hand it's never correct to fold. if a raise at the table is to big , you're playing way above what you should

 

This is very true. I've seen trades called live in a trading room, and several traders put on the trade. They all have different results, even if their size is similar. One makes a tidy profit, another makes a small profit, another exits break even, or maybe takes a loss.

This pretty much illustrates a key advantage of automation.

If I'm not mistaken, AMT's in Austin, not TEXAS

 

Better state that, if you're +ev in a hand, it is never THEORETICALLY correct to fold... It is the size of the raise you have no control over...

 

Very very good point NoD!!! Austin is an island within the Texas ocean.....LOL! :eek:

BH.....was just having some fun with you!