Sorry to burst that bubble, but there is at least one. It only generates about 47 ES points per month per contract, and is subject to some drawdowns of 12+ pts (which is beyond my emotional limit), so I do use an objective aspect in modifying the stops as a trade progresses yielding better than twice the purely "mechanical" system results. Either way, it was still developing the emotional fortitude to stay with a signaled trade no matter what my "mind" had to say about the position that made it a consistent winner for me.
Wow, that's great...if you're not kidding, and are willing to share it, then we can both make a fortune. I can "eat" 12 points per hour if we're going to make 47 points (net of over 30 points)....no problem. How big of size can we do (50 contracts at a time?)....even if we only do a few at a time, we can automate it and do well. If you're serious, we should talk! (I'm serious!). Don 800.249.7488 I want to be sure that you don't think I'm "mocking" you in any way. We (BT) have worked with people in the past who have serious "systems"...but, as you point out, anything that works tends to require constant monitoring. Don
...I don't understand why you are wary of that drawdown. My best NQ system makes about 30 NQ points a month intraday with a worst case (not average) 20 point drawdown, and I am thrilled with it. Your ES system is MUCH better. Of course this probably is doable only with a small number of contracts, but you take what you can get. The independent traders whom I have corresponded with whom I believe aren't liars report even better results trading all day. Best regards. - Mike
This has been an issue I have debated with myself for some time. I may well be paranoid, but I do believe that any system will reach diminishing returns if it is used by enough people; ultimately creating some "critical #" of contracts with entries and stops at the same prices. Unfortunately, it is human nature to tend toward greed and how many contracts people trade, or how many times the system is re-distributed is out of anyones control once shared. It cost me over 3 years of life, 100's of 1000's in losses before God (or maybe I) was ready to virtually stumble on a simple, nearly mindless system that has stood the test of time. Maybe stumble is the wrong word. Maybe it was just a strong belief that there was a way, combined with my relentless desire to "do or die in the effort" that it came to be. It was only in the past year that I began working to remove all discretion and make it purely mechanical. I felt then I would have something I could teach anyone and pass it on to my children as my gift to assure their future. Excepting a fundamental change in the markets, I believe this can be a family heritage for generations to come. It may sound funny, but I've always wanted to "leave some legacy" other than nice guy, good parent, spouse, etc. So, to answer your question. I would love to share it openly to the benefit of as many as possible, but I have my reservations and have not yet come to grips with them. I will look for future comments and thoughts on the subject that may guide me in this process. As I am not a normally a frequent visitor to ET you may also email me at hag999@juno.com Thank you
I believe that each of us has different emotional tolerances. Mine is about 5 ES points, at 6.50 I get mild stress. Not from a belief that the method is not working, but that I am off and somehow biased and mis-reading the "written word". I don't know if you've ever read a sentence then found you read it incorrectly?? I realize there a great systems (or traders) that trade far fewer trades than I, and trusting in their methods can accept any size drawdowns without feeling stressed. They have the knowledge that it is within their "successful" strategy to have such drawdowns. I suspect the real answer goes back to my early childhood or maybe it's part of my "nature", but it's just me. Once I learn more about setting up test models, I plan to "test" the method on longer charts maybe 30, 60, and day, as I suspect that the results may prove positive. I am also told that the Dax has greater intraday point swings, which is very beneficial to my method, should it work there as well. Unfortunately, I use a computer almost like a typewriter, so I am hoping once my son graduates and gets home this fall things can accelerate in this direction. So, another long answer to a short question - maybe it's just because it was one of those rare days with no losing trades that I'm so verbose. Wishing you good health and good fortune.
...sorry, English is not my native language. I did not mean it as a criticism, I meant that in my experience the drawdown relative to the expection is not risky. It's a fabulous result. After being corrected by my betters on another thread, I now agree that a truly great system does not benefit much from a stop (excepting a catastrophic one) and if the entry is right to begin with the trade may need room to breathe. In my current system I use a 9.5 NQ point stop, which is pretty much just for cat's astrophies. Thanks for the elaboration, and best regards.
I certainly appreciate and respect your desire for the legacy and business opportunity you want to leave to your family. My niece is being groomed to be President, my nephew is our new Vegas office manager. Bob and I hope that they can continue to succeed via Bright Trading for decades to come. Another thought is, however, that since the markets do change, sometimes converting ideas and business to liquid profits makes sense. Many a good business has been left only to sour on the vine. Although cash may be squandered, it is more of a guaranteed livelihood than any business. And for gosh sakes, don't share it with everyone.....just figure out a way to make enough to keep your family secure for a few generations. Whether you do this on your own, or via a business venture, if it really is worth doing....do it to the max!! All the best.... Don
I dont believe in ONE system that would be 100% accurate all the time. Just look at science, it's been around for so long, and there were many many great minds who elaborated complex systems and equations to explain the universe, yet every now and them someone else comes along and proves them wrong, or at least finds the exception that makes the rule fail. I'd say, having a system is good, but no one can pretend to have a fail-proof system.