There are several points that one can raise issues here. One is that you assume traders "going belly up" with a 50% mortality rate based on a "rude and crude" linear function. The 50% mortalility rate in itself and the linear function for mortality assumption are not backed by any factual data. In fact, if you have studied mortality functions they are by no means and by any stretch of the imagination linear functions. Most importantly, it does not address the main question as to how many PhDs are in fact superior traders/investors than the overall population. On a different note one can also consider what are the probabilities in posting 12 profitable years in a row. Pull out a binomial distribution table for a probability of 50% (or as a matter of fact for any other probability value of an event) and determine what are the odds of posting 12 wins in a row. Not very likely. But on a different note...even assuming that your assumptions are correct (which seems unlikely) 49 out of 100,000 represents obtaining an event by random chance of less than 0.5% which puts you beyond a 99% confidence interval. If you are a quant in Wall Street, I can comfortably say that they would take these odds any day. So much for PhDs...
http://www.aacsb.edu/knowledgeservices/SS03ExecutiveSummary.pdf check out the new hires. New hired PhD's are getting more tha the old tenure guys. It's because firms are hiring us off like crazy. Two of my classmates got hired off last year. Both made well over 350k a year going that route. I'm not doing this for the money though.
Your probably lying, but if you aren't, live it up while you can because you'll be sucking dick for $5 a pop once you go bust in a few years.
I like research, and I want my name attached to it, not just some internal firm document that is only seen by a bunch of PMs.
Ph.ds are not usually successful traders, they are HIRED by non-Ph.d successful traders who spent their time learning in the real world outside the ivory tower, to model and program. Also, it does not take a ph.d to index. Soccer moms and old folk do it all the time in their IRAs...
Well... We now know that you are a whore... It's only a matter of negotiating your price. So you won't "suck dick for $5 a pop"... But you are DYING to suck much bigger dick for "350K/year". OK. We understand. That's Wall Street.
Most PhDs make less than the average saleperson. They study things such as how many bacteria can colonize a one millimeter strip of a swine colon.
thank god you arnt spending your time researching something actually worth while. like climate change, alternative energy or real medical research. im sure the trading research based celebrity you gain will last throughout the ages stick with golfing.