Yo Rickshaw, Overnight, Relentless, et al. - SPY all time versus over night

Discussion in 'ETFs' started by Saltynuts, May 26, 2021.

  1. tiddlywinks

    tiddlywinks

    And not to be forgotten are all the circuit breakers that have been enacted since 1987!

    Of note that affects the analysis, are overnight circuit breakers. Should he include those too??

    And what about liquidation policy differences between futures brokers/FCMs? Maybe he could make a business out of this, offering one analysis dependent on the broker/FCM a trader uses.
     
    #21     May 27, 2021
  2. atxnfo

    atxnfo

    If you do get the chance, it would be great to see the results if you added some modifier to avoid bear trends, like only take the overnight if the SPY is above the 50 daily MA or 100 MA
     
    #22     May 27, 2021
  3. LOL tiddlywinks, sometimes Overnight has bad days when he is not firing on all cylinders lol.

    atxnfo, agreed, I like that idea and will model it eventually. All ears for stuff to try to get us even more alpha.
     
    #23     May 27, 2021
  4. Overnight

    Overnight

    Tell that to the TF-CME to TF-ICE-to RTY-CME transitional phase. The tick value changed, from $10 per tick to $5 per tick. Not too long ago, either.
     
    #24     May 27, 2021
  5. tiddlywinks

    tiddlywinks

    When it comes to trading related, to his detriment, he uses an advanced-stage confirmation bias.
     
    #25     May 27, 2021
    Saltynuts likes this.
  6. Overnight

    Overnight

    That would be a valid analysis, because there are differences. Just use IB's ever-changing performance bond requirements for simplicity, lol!
     
    #26     May 27, 2021
  7. tiddlywinks

    tiddlywinks


    CME did it with Euro futures too... chopped the tick in half to .00005.

    I remember reading about it for several weeks prior to becoming effective. :p
     
    #27     May 27, 2021


  8. So, here is the deal. I just ran the same test for the same time period, but where you buy every OPEN, sell every CLOSE, to see what your day action would be. You know the results?

    For a $100 invested you would end up with.... ... ... wait for it ... ... ... ... $95 at the end of that long like ~28 year run! DOWN FREAKING FIVE BUCKS!!!

    And you know what your max drawdown would be? 68.49%!!!!! Freaking HORIBBLE!

    Moral of the story: but 10 seconds before close each day, sell 2 seconds after open each day, profit like a smooth m'fukn criminal....
     
    #28     May 27, 2021
    atxnfo likes this.

  9. See my post right above to LF just now - does that answer what you were getting at?

    Yep, overnight in tax deferred seems an awesome choice.
     
    #29     May 27, 2021
  10. Overnight

    Overnight

    You forgot Rick's thesis. It is on ES/NQ, and it is not investing. It is trading. You are losing sight of the experiment. Most people do, which is why there is no such thing as an overnight fund. There are performance bonds to consider. That is wholly different than SPY, which is an ETF. Stop trying it with $100 on SPY.

     
    #30     May 27, 2021