YM versus ES fallacy

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by increasenow, May 24, 2007.

  1. If you already have a method or strategy...

    Backtest it on all the trading instruments you are considering for trading.

    Select the trading instrument that performed the best in the backtest.

    If you don't have a strategy...you shouldn't be trading with real money and should be only using a simulator along with backtesting until you develop a strategy with trading plan.

    My point, I've seen newbie traders performed better on YM in comparison to ES.

    Just the same, I've seen other newbie traders perform better on ES in comparison to YM.

    What's the difference?

    The strategy.

    Therefore, before you disagree or agree...

    Backtest your strategy.

    Yet, you mention the psychological aspect of trading.

    There are some traders that on paper will trade ES better than YM.

    However, during real trading, they trade YM better than ES due to the psychological aspects of trading or vice versa.

    Regardless, start small (very small) and go slow to give your self some time to make adjustments without too much pressure.

    It's during these times for newbie traders or struggling traders where goals should not involve profit targets.

    Your goals should involve in executing your trading plan as best as possible and such can be quantified.

    Mark
    (a.k.a. NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term
     
    #21     May 29, 2007
  2. After having a closer look at ER2, I can see why you, Allaces and others conclude that it gives the best "bang for the buck." I will follow it for a while as I trade NQ and see if I can use my approach on this market. Some preliminary, quick-and-dirty backtesting suggests that I can. (I may wave goodbye to ES altogether for a while!) However, I have all the timidity of an elderly man who pauses a moment before stepping onto an escalator, waiting to get into the right groove before taking a step.

    Even so, I have a question for you. Your hyperlinked reference to political strength in the pits is interesting and ostensibly makes sense to me. Nevertheless, I note that ER2's tick size is proportionately larger than that of its pit traded counterpart, not unlike the ES/SP relationship. Therefore, what would prevent its pit traders from engaging in the very same activities that SP pit traders do, to the detriment of ES-only traders? There is no denying ER2's volatility, I'm just wondering how I can reconcile your theoretical premise.
     
    #22     May 29, 2007
  3. erToo

    erToo

    The RUT tick is .10 vs .05 for the pit. ES tick is .25 vs. .10 for pit.
    The tick differential is wider for the ES/SP and the SP pit has historically been more active than the Russell pit.

    Arbs can make more on the ES/SP and they have more confidence they can unload the other side in the pit because of its greater liquidity.

    With a wider built-in profit they can then take more chances fading short term moves (and making the ES choppier).

    With the Russell its probably only profitable to arb when things get truly out of whack.

    All this being said. Trade whatever instrument you think you can make money on. I'm just trying to embarrass the CME into doing the right thing on tick size while they are under the regulators scrutiny for their merger with the CBOT.

    Now is the time to contact the CFTC if you desire . . .

    http://www.cftc.gov/cftc/cftccontacts.htm?from=home&page=contactstab



     
    #23     May 29, 2007
  4. There might not be enough volume and OI in the Russell 2K pit to play too many games

    http://www.cme.com/trading/dta/del/...uctFoiType=FUT&ProductVenue=R&ProductType=idx

    652 contracts total today
     
    #24     May 29, 2007
  5. Thanks for the response. Much appreciated.
     
    #25     May 29, 2007
  6. #26     May 29, 2007
  7. Hey all,
    WOW!...look at this...the least risky emini to trade is the...)drum roll please :eek: )...the NQ emini Nasdaq...let me explain...I am basing this off the ATR average true range per day and potential loss of 1 contract traded per day...
    Okay here we go:

    MOST RISKY: ER2...ATR is 10.67 and (greatest)loss would be $1,067

    VERY RISKY: ES...ATR is 11.63 and (greatest) loss would be $581.50

    RISKY: YM...ATR is 98 and (greatest) loss would be $490.00

    LEAST RISKY: NQ...ATR is 21.39 and (greatest) loss would be $427.80

    ...we'll very interesting...what do you think?....very surprising...yes, very surprising...I would really take this to heart as you are beginning to trade emini's...of course this is my opinion...what do all of you think???
     
    #27     May 29, 2007
  8. Exactly! Newbies should be concerned with losing less while learning, not making more.

    Cajun

     
    #28     May 30, 2007
  9. YM is gaining amazing popularity!
     
    #29     Jul 1, 2007
  10. maxpi

    maxpi

    I like the YM and I really don't even have a good reason why other than it works for me.
     
    #30     Jul 2, 2007