monarc, To answer your question, All indicators look great after the fact. Every indicator , whenever you enter, it happens to fail on you like some voodoo shit. So prevent that from happening, I never use indicators without a 85% success ratio at least and have early detection of fake outs (the other 20%) Even with a high ratio, it seems like theres false signals mainly from bar not closing , you want to get a better price so you enter early etc.. But it better be a great indicator, none of that 55% accuracy thing, Has to be around 80% and then after all the crap in between it'll shave down to around 65% which is good. Risk reward must also be great, None of that 1:2 crap. I never trade with a risk reward lower then 1:10 So 40 cents to make $4.00 10 cents to make $1.00 3 tick stops to make 30 ticks YM ---------- Porgie, Hows your intel INTC play? hahaha Lets watch it drop to $17
Hello everyone , I'd like to give my two cents worth- since you asked a question to anyone willing to answer. The rally seemed to be kick started by European bourses overnight , with the Alcatel/ Lucent merger which demonstrates a decent environment for business. ISM came in a little light at 10:00 am, autos of course are not contributing to the economy like they once were- they reported this morning with Ford down and everyone knows about GM and Delphi troubles. Together they will potentially lay off 58,000 employees(GM and Delphi) the outlook for the rest(econ reports) of the week is slightly down as well (although construction spending was good). Traditionally we are entering a weaker time of year as far as the market goes. OIL did not pull back significantly which could have contributed to the selling and there is more talk of another Fed rate increase. Its just my opinion...maybe I'm just being silly but there wasn't much reason for the Dow to be up as much as it was and then when the selling started panic ensued. Otherwise your guess is as good as mine
it is when you trade on paper... 3 tick stops on YM will always get you stopped out before the move happens.. try it yourself
========= Not always, but like you implied , so often few if any would want to miss that many moves, too much opportunity costs.
i don't trade "indicators" generally, but i am very comfortable and profitable with (this is a general setup. i have several variations depending ont he particular setup) with 10 pt stop 2 cars, first target 7 pts, second target 11 pts, which is far less than your risk/reward "requirements" the point is that the risk/reward (points risked/points gained IF successful) has to be suitable for the individual setup's historical win rate AT those stops points. for example, if you set a 200 pt stop and a 3 pt target (to use an extreme example), you would probably have a winning trade well in the 95%+ range. but the loss on the losing trades would not (probably - i have not backtested this) make it worth it. there is no rule like you must have at least a 1:2 risk reward ratio or any such rubbish to be succesful trading YM there are many many many ways to be successful trading YM, and they do not all involve the way you think is necessary my reward (for most setups) is LESS than the risk, but the expectancy of wins is very very high, so this still results in a net profitable outcome to say the least that's MY style. ymmv
coolweb, when it goes to 17 the protective 07 put is now in the money and i will sell it .....or wait til 10 so put worth 1000........all intrinsic.......whoopee ......i hope it goes to 15 o r lower and i will be in intc real low and real nifty position........thanks for asking
this forum will make 1000 all time record held forever especially if the posters keep whipping themselves on the backs ...........legend in their own minds........until the boss catches them playing around on his computer on his time......especially those evening posters who work shift work............ur correct whitster.........if not expectancy but reality is very high percentage success............ stop becomes not so important............ur point target exits are very smart targets............while the others are shooting for 10 and 15 u r skipping out based on studies.......u have done some homework or someone else has for you .....noo offense intended...........expectancy for me is absolute 90% know it is coming........not expected....notice i didn't say 100% ....like today...........and most days ....but the smart guys and gals say don't do the no stop deal........ ..........if u r scalper it even becomes less important if ur psyche will allow u to get out on mental stop......when the few turn against you......that is when u trail the stop.........or the big no no bar.......at u know where.....risk reward inverted usually takes the trader out eventually......if ur trades are a s clear as u say, and i'm sure they are, and u limit enter which says u enter excellent or u don't enter, t hen if u use a loose stop or tight it doesn't matter but a 20 pt stop on ym indicates fear.......unless u r a homerun trader as well as point target which is also smartllllllll
whitster............ur stops are about what the professionals use on YM intraday........10 pts with your exits are about 1 to 1.....r/r.....high success rate makes it a moot point........a wild example if 100% correct on all trades who needs any stop.......?? the 4050% guys had better runa tight ship.......3 or 4 losses in a row could create a hole hard to come out of......