I believe that there is a thread called something like "system trading with acrary" somewhere here on ET. On that thread, there were a number of discussions as to how one could be making a profit for a period of even as long as a few weeks and it would not necessarily constitute an "edge". Without reconstituting the whole discussion by folks who know a lot more than I do about this stuff, it could be explained with the following example: If one could imagine that you wanted to trade the imaginary "coin toss" futures market (similar to scalping forex -- just kidding) and in the middle of 10,000 coin tosses, you happened upon a sequence where heads were occuring more often than tails and you decide to buy whenever you see a head. Then, through extraordinary circumstance, you get 15 heads in a row. Should you conclude that not only do you have an edge, but you are a genius? Not necessarily, since that sequence will happen once or twice in 10,000 coin tosses. The point is that you need to distinguish between an edge and plain dumb luck. The fact that a system is profitable for some period does not mean that it has an edge. How you determine an edge has been discussed on many threads here on ET. humbly yours, hightech
steve, did you read my comments about my approach to using oscillators in several time frames to fortify a sorter time frame entry and the example i gave with the elevators?..... do you agree with that at all or no?
Hightech: You dont need anything to profit in the markets. You could just flip a coin and trade. Either you would win money or you would lose (some, or all). None of this has to do with edge. You are asking about edge before you have put in any work at understanding what it is, and what the math is (statistics). In his thread Acrary explained clearly what a statistical edge is, and what an historical tendency is. Go back and do the homework. Then you and (me or anyone with an adequate background) can have an intelligent conversation. Moreover, you will find that some of the questions you have asked, you already have answers to. Little Duc, your ideas about indicators are at the same level you dont' know enough about them to really know what you are talking about. As a result, if you find something that works, it will probably be pure chance. Wouldn't it be better to start a structured review of the subject matter on your own? Talking about it is one thing, what causes me to wonder is your willingness to lose money by trading without an adequate background. What would you do if you felt sick and went to visit your doctor, only to find that he was actually a first year med student who, felt that he had learned enough to do the work. In between seeing patients, he would watch episodes of medical shows feeling that sooner or later he would be able to fill in the gaps in his education. I will talk to you guys tomorrow. Steve
I don't disagree with anything that you have posted here, except that I was not the individual asking about what an edge is. If you look carefully at my post, I was merely giving an example of what an edge is not in response to someone else's comment that time and profitability were a measure of edge. As for statistics, I own at least one book, the Sherry book, on your recommendation, as I indicated to you in a pm over the holidays. It is a very helpful book on stationarity, independence and randomness. yours truly, hightech
cw.....I am glad to be the only single personality guy here..........the only thing wrong with your 40% system and Steve's coin flip and trade theory is that the emotional impact of losing about 1/2 of time is the big trap...He knows what i am talking about.......Mind won't let it happen for long.....confidence erodes as weak system disappoints over and over....then the LEAD PAWS SYNDROME SETS IN....not many make it.....and t hose that do individually are almost non existent, despite what you see written on the spoof forum..........I was immersed in emini trading 5 years ago with a man who spent too much to talk about. ES only but headed to the big board 10 t raders with 10 contract dreams with the big money gamble and losing big like taking a drink of water.............spent 4 months or so there watching 2 programmers/computer experts/math genius etc........they showed everything not to do..........my hypertension that some of u laugh at wouldn't allow me to stay under the pressure....we intraday traded only........test with real money.......big gamble with inverted risk reward.......5 pt 8pt 10 pt targets .....always 10 pt stops with no moving to breakeven or anywhere else....breakout trading always selling low and buying high.............it ain't rocket science.....reading books is fine, but everyone has those so why aren't more people successful? I would rather read charts.......my charts, not someone else's...I learned a little from dbphoenix a previous journal creator ......he was booted off the forum, but he knows of which he speaks....except I disagree that intraday emini needs volume....I see it as lagging..........
I was kinda expecting to read why you disagreed with my method of time frames.... not that i dont know enough. And who is saying im losing money?? But hey im just a little duck.
I don't understand why this porgie keeps saying volume is lagging considering its in real time just like price. Maybe he's starting to imagine things. Porgie, You can continue to use price only Truthfully, I don't really care if you use volume or not Its your system. whatever works for you. Just don't keep bringing that lagging bullshit up when its real time. False statements are the only thing that makes me comment on your system really.
LD I'd like you to understand something. I don't bear any resemblance to your mother. I'm not here to make sure you are comfortable and you get all your questions answered. I gave you an opinion. I hope you get it. Now I'd like to see some evidence that you are doing some of the work yourself. Good luck Steve