Edge is information. An example: Say that I have downloaded the intraday charts for the last 6 months. I have changed the price data from absolute price (say 1275.25 going to 1275.75) into price jumps (say .50pts, followed by .25, then 1.25 etc) so now I have a table that consists of price "jumps". Now say that I go over that data on a week by week basis, and I discover that at 11:00, there is an 89% chance that the next two bars will be price jumps of 1 point each. What I have is a historcal edge. It is not a great edge, BUT it is enough for me to trade if I have other favorable conditions. This is one kind of edge. Another example. Say that once again I have downloaded price action for the last 6 months. Analyzint the price movement I learn that price has a 84% tendency to bounce off the daily pivot (it will not take it out, but instead bounces off, AND the size of the bounce is at least 1 point (100% of the time). That is an historical edge. Again it is not a great edge, BUT it may be a tradeable edge IF there are other favorable signals concurrent with it. Another example Say that once again I have downloaded 6 mos data and find that on days when price moves in one direction only from 11:30 to 12:00, and the bond market is advancing on good volume, I can expect to see a bounce in the other direction at 12:05 that is at least 2 points (77% of the time). Again that is an historical edge. Again it is not a great edge, BUT it may be a tradeable edge IF there are other favorable signals concurrent with it. Are you starting to see what I mean. By the way, why dont you start a web site to find and sell them? It would be like a car dealership. Hey folks, how about this fine '06 temporal displacement edge. Its got power seats, windows and factory air (in the tires) and you can drive it away today for only $2995 no ups no extras. by golly what a deal!!! Steve
I think you find there are good traders on here and a lot of advice and i'm sure you have picked some of this up but you dont realise it. You could give you trading plan in full I bet nobody would follow it. in fact i'm 99% sure nobody would. Because everyone jump form system to system. even if you have a good plan I bet you in will stop working ..do you think it would work if the dow was trading at 12000? I know of a trader who had an excellent method to trade the s&p in the late 80s and early 90s.but I can assure you it dont work anymore. and one time it made him a lot of money. so dont get over confident with what ever you are using at present
Porgie just mixed his new found TICK chart Combined with MACD with 10 as parameter With a AD/DX advanced Plus a Woodies CCI with no upper/lower line showing To get his 5 point system. He doesn't want us to find out about his secret system. Too bad little does he know, all he's showing is his cluelessness. Any successful trader will freely talk to you about their system, for what reason? Because I know you can never pick it up and use it if you don't really work on it and fully understand every single detail of it to make it yours. Just missing one of my ideas where I don't speak about means , <b>my system won't work for you.</b> Only the cluebies who just found out about his TICK chart overlayed with a MACD chart will think he has some magical shit and keep it like its the map to the monkey island treasure. Porgie: wakey wakey to the real world!
each example of edge is IF concurring signals seen....I respect the comments and agree very much with them......But, I have developed the system to such an extreme that I do not need to know anything, just take the signals only and everytime........for instance support/resistance......I don't care about that as system signals show ends of run........both ends...support and resistance pv etc are the why the price turned....all i want is price turn..............i don't care to know why as system shows the turn and entry signals..the less I think the more I like it...thinking is too emotional..............as development evolved, I built system based on such things as you call the edge...I have the edge only I call it a system that I have total confidence in......l.....system filters fakeouts, and weak moves.........it is all I say with no boasting.......I earned it and I don''t care who likes or disagrees since no one but me and my brother have it......for family only.....too specific..at least never read or hear similar stuff.......in public arena or elsewhere..............the best part is not the high accuracy......alone........it allows tight stops.......and rare actual loss.....breakevens are occasional and good.....this is being traded all day everyday real money realtime.....and as you said Steve, i know the truth, and I am not here to convince anybody else since I don't sell it and I don't give it away.......and no, not a short timer.......best system is 6mos and growing........no curve fitting allowed........
cw....no successful trader will sell or give his stuff away until it quits working or gets on theweak side...then he travels the country selling it, and then what little benefit it has left is destroyed by ego traders or just plain lack of sweat equit y..........
Porgie Would you tell me what time frame you use and how many point the YM must move before you move your stop to break-even. Also when you enter a trade, lets say you trade 10 lots in this example. Would you self half of you position 5 lots lets say 8 points and let the other half run till you get a reversed signal or maybe a target? and further more regarding stops are they fixed stops or based on ATR over the last few bars? and how many signals in a trading day you method gives you. And do you trade with the trend? I feel you trade very similar to my self.I am a very short term trader,can have up to 7 to 15 YM trades in a day