As far as identifying supply and demand, I use a proprietary method that I developed and coded. Sorry, but I am not willing to throw it out here on the internet. You can use any effective method, it is not rocket science. I am certainly not a scientist. I watch several time frames for clues, like the 144M chart today, but I generally keep my eye on the 15M cycles. Mostly because all the maniacs are scalping them in the pits, etc. and they are traded by many. There are 2 charts below. One is a clean version showing the cycle signals and where they formed. The other is a chart with many months of past cycle swing levels extended to the right. (aka, supply and demand) The green lines on the busy chart are key points that I (think) are good reference for directional change. These signals are generally generated out of congestion. The lines on the chart go back many months in some cases. What will happen in many cases is that price will move out of an area and then check back to the cycle level before the real move begins. It requires great flexibility and I use it like a pivot point. Long above, short below to the next level. For instance, when I look at the recent action chart I think there is an above average chance that we will move back to the 11600 level tommorrow. Then up ? Who knows. When I combine this with what I saw at the top on the volume chart, it leads me to believe we need to auction back down to find buyers first. Here is the clean version Here is the messy one. It looks a lot better on my 30" monitor.
DTL~ That really is a unique way of charting volume. I see what you mean about designating prices that others are considering urgent. How long do you use these as valid points? For example, trading gets out of this consolidation we been in for this month. Would you use points that were established in June or do you feel the "memory" is gone? Would you mind commenting on the Cycles you use? Cycle seems like such a loaded term at times. Can be anything from Gann to HH/LL for Price Action traders to Elliot Wave. I know you said something about coding in TS -- not asking specifics, just your general thoughts. Thanks again for your time ----- Russell
Covered my short at 11672 to make a 71 tick gain for the day. Monitored it all while at son #3's soccer practice and while walking the dog. I love mobile technology! I've coached for years, but with just a D license, I can't coach my own boys anymore (U12 Div 1 and Frosh in HS). I'm also a ref, though an ankle reconstruction has limited my reffing in the past year. The moniker is kind of a joke. It's more aptly short for.... attacking mid(dle age)! Working a tournament all day tomorrow, so next week I'll take a closer look at your work. AM.
All my trading is based solely on price and its relationship to current value. I do not use any indicators except volume and I really don't count that. Cycle is just a word. To me it means we are above a known point and heading up. Just a word that reminds me to stay with the trend if I can, nothing else.
I always want to keep the slightly larger picture in mind. Here's what I have for Friday. Obviously, the 11700 level is significant. We are currently building value at this level. The question is will we move above and build value??? Labor Day Friday, end of month who knows what the grown ups are thinking. If we continue to trade below this level, then I would look for a possible move down towars 11531. If we build value above 11700 then look for 11850 area.
And you shouldn't. ----Volume is a consideration that can largely be ignored. It is not an essential element for successful trading and is easily misinterpreted. Thank you for your time.