Okay here is what I have A cycle change at 11671. Below this level and the cycle is down, not up. Give it some wiggle room of course. It is a longer term cycle so make your mistakes around this number. If the move continues next stop I have is 11787, then 11970, 12,100. Price action in between can change the cycle. Any change and I will post it. Good luck
Lot of two sided trading up here at 11700. Need some of you to buy 5000 or so. Bond traders prob don't know what to do Trying to get their scalps A lot of vol has been spent up here. Very shakey
Nice work DTL; And I'll just update the numbers on the upside I have... again, mostly similar. No chart at this time. 11770, 11848-64, 11923, 12045-70. As you'll recall, dispersion and clustering (or lack of) are meaningful charateristics. Keep up the analysis, and most importantly, the great trading. Osorico
Well I traded like crap today. Market up almost 200 points and I only made a few ticks. Short trade at 11645. Reversed to long at 11666. - 21. Long at 11666. Out at close 11697. +31. A whopping 10 ticks on the day. I am going to go beat the dog.
I enjoy your postings. I trade the YM sporadically when I'm not finding option plays I like, so I've been reading the past few days. I was contemplating going short this morning, and when I saw you did, I jumped on at 11648. I didn't reverse until 11688, so was off to a bad start. Made 7 RT's and am sitting short in the AH's. Am up 42 ticks all together. Would love to learn more about your methods. AM.
My method is very basic (at least I think so). I get a big picture using price distribution analyis and then drill down to trade the YM intra-day. Always being aware of the longer term distribution. I just really spend my day working on identifying supply and demand levels and swing levels. Watch volume closely and pull the trigger. I coded my method of cycle swings into TS easy langage and watch it closely.
Okay. First let me say that reading volume is harder than chinese arithmetic. Unlike some, I use it in a simple way and it is usually the final step for confirming an entry. Focusing on the Dow and not the S&P. What I do is look for very high volume bursts in a very short period of time. Usually one minute or less. Although I adjust continually based on the volume flow right now I look for blocks of 1500 contracts traded within one minute. If this is occurring on the YM, it tells me that a certain level is important. That's easy enough, but the hard part is understanding if it is buying or selling. And the truth is that I really don't know, none of us really do. I set my volume charts up a little differently than most. Here is what it looks like. This is the last 4 days of YM trading. The blocks on the chart represent price points at which > 1500 shares of YM trade in 1M. Near the top today you will see 3 blocks formed. Not at the same time however. If a box is green, it means the one minute time period closed higher. Mind you, this does not (necessarily) mean that it was buying. Red box means the close of the time block was down. What will usually happen is that price will stall around these levels as volume is sucked out of the market. In real time, (when it counts) it is hard to interpret. At the end of a day however there are many more clues. For instance, it is fairly easy to assume that the green boxes in the middle were buying as price closed higher. What I do is watch for extremes and the price action on the time and sales, etc. As a very general rule, I will interpet a green box near the high of an extreme as selling. I think this was the case today. That is why price did not move up. My guess is the red box was buying. I can not go into detail in a post much more because it really becomes very discretionary and much like an art form to read. I have been watching it a long time. See the red boxes at the lows from a couple days ago. I knew this was buying. It was obvious. You can really scalp effectively if you are patient with this method. Even if you do not get the buying or selling right. When the volume is sucked out price will seek more volume Anyway, clear as mud. You could certainly do this with traditional volume bars, but what I am interested in is the price at which all this market interest appears. At least I know it is an important level to others, etc.