Today was a good day for the method. I had a couple trades in the chop that were losers which I did not post. They happened fast. The total for today was +116. Today's ATR was around 214 so about 55% of the range. Luckily another good day. I wish they were all this good.
Here's what I'm thinking heading into tomorrow, Friday 8-22 Sorry the charts are so big, but it is hard to discuss on a small chart. I first want to step back and take a look at the slightly bigger picture. Let's look at the monthly price distribution of the YM. (Remember this is NOT market profile). I do things differently than MP. An interesting dynamic has developed over the last two sessions as we spent a lot of time at the bottom of the monthly range. There are now (2) areas this month that we have spent the most time building value. They are approximately 11351 and 11641. Both of these areas have created an equal longest line. I also marked last month's longest line which comes in around 370. If you have been looking at the session charts at all you may be familiar with the 351/370 level as I have traded them actively the last couple days. Understanding this helps us realize why we have spent so much time in congestion recently. What has been occurring is that traders have been building value on both sides of 351 in an attempt to see if the DOW is worth more or less. Until proven wrong, I expect trade to occur tomorrow and into the end of the month between 11351 and 11641. What would prove me wrong? If we move below 351, sellers take control and we build value. Sellers tried aggressively to move us down yesterday and today, but buyers prevailed. The grown ups have been positioning LONG just below this level so far. This is why I held long after the morning session today. If we do move down below 11,351 then I would say we may see 11,200 next. So tomorrow, we want to see if the move up away from 11351 continues. If it does and moves above the 11460 area then we have a strong case to trade up to 11,641 in coming sessions. I DO NOT trade a monthly chart, but I want to be aware of this dynamic as I am trading my session levels. My bias is a move up, but who knows. Now let's look at all the squiggly mess on the weekly chart. As we discussed yesterday, the 422 level was critical. We finally traded up through this level, but hit a wall at the 11466/11458 levels on the chart. This was my target since mid-morning. I closed my longs completely on the failure at this level and actually went short back to the bottom of the distribution to 422. The action was pretty clear to me at this point. The trade worked out perfectly. I was going to set longs but it got late and I decided to stand aside. Not sure if you noticed or not, but the 4:00 close was right around this level. My bet is tomorrow we are either going back up to 11460 or back down to 11351. In any case, keep you eye on the 422 level and remember if we hold below 351(and its hard to tell) we definitely don't want to be long. Clear as mud. The one thing that stand out to me is that the weekly distribution would look nice if it filled in up to 11644. Just where the monthly tells us. I will do my best to keep an eye on things tomorrow and do some posting. Good luck.
I just realized I left my short trade at the end of the day out of my totals. I actually made 152 points or about 70% of the range. This will make up for the times when I make -35% of the range.
The upper distribution met its objective at 11644 (actual high so far has been 11636). As discussed the most likely scenario is a move back down toward 422/351 in coming sessions. I have exited all my longs and would not get long again unitl we build value up above 644. If the market trades below 11585, then there is a chance we could move back down to 11485/422 but seems unlikely with all the green in the market today. Obviously, shorts are tuff today. If you captured the upmove, best to go fishing.
One thing that strikes me visually is that the daily distribution is in the shape of the letter "P". This can sometimes mean the up move was caused by short covering, but it is hard to say. If this is the case, the market could move aggessively back down resuming its trend. Watch to see if buying comes back into the market on a move down. If it does not, then likely short covering. If it does, don't fight it. Around 11:40, I am seeing some fairly large offers in the 590 area. Also the tick has been treding down during the DOW's move up. ???
Nice trading DTL.. Just wondering if you keep an eye on anything else during the day, bonds, Dow stocks, other indexes etc.. Thanks!
The market is giving us the 11350 level again. I am setting longs for a move back to 11641. Tight risk if we move below the 11350 level significantly