Here is what I am looking at for the 8-21 day session tommorrow. The 422 level is extremely important in the distribution. Price tried to move into the upper distribution today, but was met with other time frame sellers most likely and returned to the current weekly curve. This is why I went short today on the move up. I expected to trade back down to the weekly longest line at 351 area and we did. The area between 385 and 350 was unresolved and it built value during the middle of the day. Once this was comlplete we move back up to the 422 area. So for tomorrow, If we begin to build value above the 422 level, then I expect the curve to balance upward. I would expect the 11500 level to hold the first time up, and a possible move back down in front of 422. If we begin to move up above 11500, then I expect the 644 area at some point this week. On the other side, if we move down below the 11351 level and it holds, then a new downside distribution may develp below the current low extreme. I have 284 as a key area on the downside. Here are the levels for tommorrow.
Nice trading. Would you mind explaining some of you levels? A lot of them are obvious, but why do you have levels set at 11370, 11313, and 11422? I'm thinking that 370 & 313 are the value area and 422 is the POC? Thanks.
The 313 and 370 lines are from last months distribution. Many time extremes within the month become "bellies and longest lines" the next. 422 is simply the top extreme of the bottom dist and the lower extreme of the upper on the weekly chart. I do NOT use market profile. This is price distribution. Poor mans MP so I have to do everything manually. I find my levels on the PD charts and move them to a bar/candle chart in the 3/5 min setting and play the levels.
I have the lines on my charts color coded. Brilliant! The blue lines are monthly. The darkblue lines are previous month. The darkred lines are weekly(current)
So know matter what you may hear or read no one, no one has any clue what the market will actually do. I always have a plan so I know how to react, but it is just that.. a plan. I realize that I have to go with the flow and trade what I see. So my plan for today is ... To the North I am watching the 422 level. I realize that if we hold above this level it is bullish and I expect the market to auction up to 466, 497. A move above this level, if it holds and we build value may take us to the 11584/11600 level. To the South, I am watching 11286. If we build value below this level than a lower distribution could begin to develp. It is obvious that we have buyers down to 286, but we don't know what is below yet. In between, I expect range trading with key levels being 422 351 286 Markets in any time frame only trend a small percentage of the time. It may surprise some to realize it is very small. In my judgement about 6% of the time. So I always expect the market to build value or range trade and I trade the levels in the distribution below, if we do get a trend day then react accordingly. Good luck today.
If the market opens below 11310, this will be significant and it is important to observe behavior from this point. 310 is the low value area for my methodology from yesterday. My value areas are not traditional MP value areas of 70%. We want to watch closely to see if price moves back above 310 or into the value area in the first hour of trading. If it does not then it could mean a trend day down. If it moves back in, then we could see a strong move up. At 9:25 the market traded down to the 313 level (exactly) which is one of the supply demand levels on the chart above.
Now watching the 351 level, a move above could take us up. To set shorts here, it would be best to see a strong test above and then a move back below.
The market is testing the 351 level here at 10:15. Up to 422 or down to 284. If we do move up, look for extensions to 435/50 and then a move back toward 422 and this may provide a good long setup for the upper distribution. Same with down, extensions down to 265/50. Down financials are down, they need to get moving