YM inverse Head & Shoulder NOW!

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Rickshaw Man, Aug 25, 2005.

  1. newbunch

    newbunch

    That tight band of 76 to 79 still had a 14% annual range, not 1-3%.

    In the last 923 months, only 12 months have ranges under 3% with the smallest being 2.2% (November 1944). And you argue that there are periods of over a year with ranges of less than 3%?
     
    #11     Aug 25, 2005
  2. Actually, no, I am not arguing that; I agree with your conclusions.

    My reference point was 10%, not 3%, so my review was not the same as yours. I am not surprised to learn, however, that uber-tight ranges occurred only about 1% of the time during the period you reviewed.

    It has been a while since I did my research in this regard. As I recall, though, equities rarely sit still for long. They may end up at the same point they started at years earlier, but they usually travel quite a ways to get there.
     
    #12     Aug 25, 2005
  3. Dow LOC Monthly chart.
     
    #13     Aug 25, 2005
  4. Not that you care AYK but you will never be on my iggy list. Your comments have nothing to do with the individual threads but they are more entertaining then watching "Crank Yankers" while trading.
     
    #14     Aug 25, 2005
  5. newbunch

    newbunch

    In the area you circled, the close (which is what you drew) varied from 1115.28 to 1347.45, a range of 20.8%. If you include the intra-month values, the low was 1078.95 and the high was 1372.20, a range of 27.2%. Even that "tight" area was has a range much wider than you 1-3% or your new 10%.

    Just look at the moves. The market closed November 83 at 1276 and dropped to 1115 in July 84, a drop of 12.6%. Then it went to new high within 5 months.

    As I said, since 1928, the smallest 12 month range is 10.0%. So with you "1-3% ranges for years" or even with your new "reference point was 10%," it just doesn't happen (well, 10% happened once and only once)!!!
     
    #15     Aug 25, 2005
  6. Who knows, maybe this time it will play out.
     
    #16     Aug 26, 2005