YM in a Can

OddTrader · May 8, 2004

Quote from ElectricSavant:

Actually, I would just like a hard rule to exit Friday's at MOC. Then start fresh Sunday evening (too much can happen over the weekend and there can be an unexpected gap). I think many traders exit on Fridays.
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It basically sounds reasonable, isn't it?

ElectricSavant · May 8, 2004

Yes it seems reasonable.

But what we really want to happen with this type of trading is for brackets to get activated. But in a gap nothing can get activated, so it is gambling if you leave the position open. Also large gaps can cause some future technical problems if the gap takes us over a level.

So yes, If everybody would like this journal to track this exiting on Fridays so be it. Silence means yes, and comments will be considered.

Assuming silence, this will begin next Friday 05/14/04.

Michael B.

P.S. I am playing on Forex with this tonight using Oanda's free charts lol.

Quote from OddTrader:

It sounds reasonable, isn't it?
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OddTrader · May 8, 2004

Quote from ElectricSavant:

P.S. I am playing on Forex with this tonight using Oanda's free charts lol.
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Wouldn't you call it "EUR/USD in a Jar"! ?

ElectricSavant · May 8, 2004

ROFL...TOOOO FUNNY

Michael B.

Quote from OddTrader:

Wouldn't you call it "EUR/USD in a Jar"! ?
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LoosenUp · May 8, 2004

Where do you get the free version of Futuresource giving live YM? Thats too good to be true.

Quote from ElectricSavant:

Yes, I have definitely thought of using a trailing stop (over and over on each trade lol). The YM trades much differently than the ES and the mini-trends between this systems levels are huge, making it hard to trail or at least establish a breakeven stop.

I am studying MAE to develop a strategy. I think I want to scale the trailing stops based on probability discovered through MAE analysis (maximum adverse excursion). I need more data or a backtester who can develop sublevels of the probability of the reversal level being reached. Since I do not have charts (crazy isn't it?) I cannot do much. I am simply using the free version of Futuresourse on the Web which is actually real time for the YM. So until I get more sophisticated, I will not need charts.

Keep in mind this is not my system. Perhaps my use of the equation on the YM may not be mainstream. Also the 24 hour use of it may not be by the book. With some combined effort from ET it will become unique.

But I honestly need some help as I am not smart enough to come up with stuff myself. It would take me years to stumble onto something that would work with this equation. I know the results are impressive and don't fix what works, but this is only temporary. I am curious what happens next week.

Just now, I am wishing I had a trailing stop because YM dropped so hard in the afternoon today. I am afraid the system will trigger a reversal early Monday morning leaving all this profit on the table (currently 57 YM points). Actually, I would just like a hard rule to exit Friday's at MOC. Then start fresh Sunday evening (too much can happen over the weekend and there can be an unexpected gap). I think many traders exit on Fridays.

I need money management too, based on a dynamic indication of bias through technical analysis. These two items are on the top of the list (trailing stop and MM).

There is no way to altar the formula as it will still only work some of the time no matter how it is optimized, so I think that might be a big waste of time to screw with it. However I will change it slightly to make it my own, even though it is already unique(different way to get the same numbers as cam) but mirrors the cam equation.

The more experienced traders need to please be patient and endure the simplicity that some of you may be experiencing. This journal is meant to discover, teach and grow. I hope this is helping some and I hope it is advanced enough for the more experienced.

So many have been surprisingly kind and encouraging. It is a joy to post this journal. (remind me of this comment when the system is losing).

Michael B.
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ElectricSavant · May 8, 2004

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=EYMM04&o=&a=D&z=575x300&d=LOW&b=CANDLE&st=

Quote from LoosenUp:

Where do you get the free version of Futuresource giving live YM? Thats too good to be true.
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ElectricSavant · May 8, 2004

Yeah easy breakouts

Michael B.

Quote from OddTrader:

Wouldn't you call it "EUR/USD in a Jar"! ?
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harrytrader · May 8, 2004

Sure it is pivots: GEOMETRICAL PIVOTS

The formula you are using is not exactly cama but it is very close: try the other one.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=26130&perpage=6&pagenumber=8

Quote from harrytrader:

As I said it's just pivots. So I won't talk about Cama anymore but about GEOMETRICAL PIVOTS. I won't put a trademark on it so everybody can use it
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Quote from ElectricSavant:

I was told today that this is not Cama that I am trading in a PM. It is just Pivots and some lines to draw.

Michael B.

P.S. I really do not know what to think. All I know is to just execute the sys. Perhaps this sys can just draw its own lines in the sand, and by the time everyone figures it out we will make some money. I did note how it did not reverse when rising up to h3 today. It nicely turned back around in our direction. So which formula is correct? It must be tested. In any case this is not my work or my formula (s), let me make that clear. I will make it my own however with the tweaks I/We discover.

P.S.S. Now if I can figure out how to read Harry's work, I would be so happy. Does anybody have trouble reading what I am posting? Is it clear?
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harrytrader · May 8, 2004

I have an archive of almost one year every day of my model and all the accessories around ... like geometrical pivots . I don't trade cama only my model - which has nothing to do with such simplistic pivots - I just look at them as well as I look at fib ratios to have a quick glance since it is simplistic but like any other pivots or fibonacci based system they are blind: like the other day my model knows why 10177 was due BEFORE it was printed on pivots only after the fact .
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=27723&perpage=6&pagenumber=9

So I can't give any real suggestion to cama alone as it would relate to my model.

Quote from ElectricSavant:

Thanks Mark1

Harry and T-Rex, do you post your levels daily? Could you compare your results here if you have time. I suppose you would not share any suggestions would you? If you take day for day results and put them along side this journal from its inception, how much more did you make per contract in the YM? This is a sincere question, and by no means a challenge? I really think the free exchange of ideas and NOT the commercial aspects are at issue here as I know you want to help others in this hard profession. And I know you would not use ET for free advertising.

I am leaving h1/h2 and L1/L2 levels in the equation as they will provide points to enter in audible alerts to "get ready or to wake up" for you "speaker in the bedroom" traders .... They are not used to "trade off of" for the YM yet.

I have looked at another formula and I do not see the difference(it gives the same #'s). It was PM'd to me by 2 other traders:

HL5 = (hi/lo)*close
HL4 = ( ((hi/lo)+0.83)/1.83 ) *close
HL3 = ( ((hi/lo)+2.66)/3.66 ) *close
LL5 = close - (HL5-close)
LL4 = close - (HL4-close)
LL3 = close - (HL3-close)

They claim this gives different #'s, What am I missing?

Michael B.

P.S. I hope this helps. There is no ego here, please folks contribute your thoughts. I just have a time problem and need to arrive. I have got nothing to hide and am sharing everything I know.
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ElectricSavant · May 8, 2004

and it gave me the same numbers.

try the other one