For those of you that do not have Excel. I would still welcome any comments or ideas you have. Some say these levels that I am using represent support and resistance. I do not believe that is true. How could levels of lines be drawn in the sand from the day before based on a percent of range determine todays support and resistance? Only chart reading can do that (looking at price action and trading off of nearby S/R). What this system does is try to get into position to take the chop/pullback out of a trend and still benefit from the trend. It can also reverse and catch the reversal's too. The work that I am doing now is to identify waves of MFE and MAE and defined distances from the open. Also, after discovering any consistency the future work will then identify the difference following wide range vs. narrow range days. The system is far from complete, and I will share all I discover. For those of you that do not have Excel, I do not know how you will manually calculate these levels. I can give you the formula's for use in other program(s) if you will post your finished work to the thread, for others that do not have Excel. Let me know. In no way, will I consider any commercial benefit other than sharing and helping other traders free. Trading is hard enough and we should help one another. I cannot thank those of you that have helped in this thread enough. They did not expect anything in return. The PM's that I have received have been overwhelmingly in support of this work, and is the only reason I continue. Michael B.
I dont wanna interfere with the artistic process but may be you're heading towards over-complication?
Perhaps your correct. Do you think the range the day before has any impact at all about the following days price action? Do you think the distance from the open has any effect on the waves as they get further away from the open? If the answer is yes to one of the above questions, could you share how YOU would deal with this? Michael B.
Hello Michael: I am not familiar with the details of you revised system, but I want to mention the following. First, I do not think that "waves" is the way to look at price action. I could be wrong however, and I know of a trader who thinks of the opening price as if someone threw a rock into a still pond. The rest of the day's price action are the waves that spread out from that first "event" each day. What I notice about price as relates the ES market is that the open shows relatively big volume and then it gradually dies down until the NY lunch hour. Then at about 1 o'clock NY time, volume starts to pick up again into the close. Personally I like to look at price on the weekly, 60 min and 15 min charts. I am looking for trending behavior. I don't expect to find agreement on all time frames, but I am looking for evidence. What I look for is a wide range bar closing on or near the high on increasing volume compared with the previous bar(s). Seems to me that what you could do with pivot ranges is to look for "signs" of acceleration (range, volume, closing on the high) to signal a long entry when price is near these points. Depending on the other time frames, absence of those signals may tell you to stand aside, to take profit if you are in a trade, or to go short. Good luck, Steve46
Humbly speaking, When you hear me mention the word "wave", please disregard everything you ever read/researched about that word as it pertains to trading. Steve, take it like this. Lets say, your at the lake and you fall in the water, what are the chances you are going to get wet? Now, with that in mind, lets say that when you fall in the lake there are some rapids nearby and unfortunately you do not have any way of keeping the flow from drawing you in. What to do? do you swim against the flow, or do you save energy and relax? While you are drowning, you are thinking about this: I have a chance to get out of this and I do not know what it is. I know there is flow and I know I have a limited amount of time. If I take a chance and focus on a direction to swim (the bracket), I will live or die. If I am wrong, before I die I may get another chance. Do I do the same thing or in desperation/logic do I do the opposite? What are my chances of being wrong twice, thrice...etc (PSM)? Will I be right eventually, if I can hold my breath? Yesterday the rapids churned up a lot of debris (range), making the ride to my death more dangerous, will this effect my decisions/opportunities to live or to die? Ok, think about this....enough for now, Wifey and I are going for a swim in the community swimming pool. Be back later on this evening. (I hope ) Michael B.
It is impossible to use just one formula for all conditions (downfall of many static systems). I know that this is "YM in a Can", but can we buy a Five-Pack? (hey, candy bars got smaller, why not offer 5-pack?) Michael B. P.S. It's Coming Soon, Watch for the Jounal......."YM in a "Five-Pack".
Here are two equations for forward testing. Equation 1 Range >200 Equation 2*Range 165-200 Equation 3 Range 130-165 Equation 4 Range 95-130 Equation 5*Range <95 *Attached Michael B. P.S This evenings OPEN (Sunday 05/23/04-Trade day 05/23/04 according to my daily charts from E-Sig, Futuresource calls it 05/24/04 trade day) is a Range of 98 from the previous day (equation 4).
I know all that stuff about NR4 and NR7 days... the problem is that fairly often these narrow range days are followed by outside days with whipping action on both side's of yesterday's range. And it happens rather often and I havent found a way around it so I dont buy into the NR7 mantra.