I am looking to refine this system to achieve the least consecutive losses, as I will use Position Size Management to turn the corner. I want this to be a 24 hour "always in" system (I have too much to lose as it was very hard to talk my wife into the speaker thing ). To avoid a larger maintenance performance bond requirement, an exit at MOC and a re-entry at the re-open could reduce the performance bond requirements back down to $500.00 per contract as there would be no carry over into the next session. Hopefully, I can maintain a 50% winrate and at least a minimum of 1.25:1 average win to average loss ratio. (plug those #'s in here www.hquotes.com/tradehard/simulator.html ) Michael B. P.S. The systems winrate of below 40% and the 10 consecutive losses is not close enough to what I want. P.S.S. Are my expectations too high? Quah? what are your thoughts? Be honest, I can take it.
I am trying to remain calm (Mrs. Savant trembling as she types) Would you folks please tell Electric to not trade overnight? I love him very much, but he does not know when enough is enough. I find myself praying for no spikes. When I tell my friends they ask me what spikes are? I do not want to get into it, here in ET, but this really has to stop, I am exhausted. Wifey
I suggest you replace the speakers with 50 feet of wiring starting at the USB port of the PC and ending in a knot around Electric's little toe. Instead of 100 decibels blasting through the room, each trading alert will administer 100 volts. You will awaken refreshed and the neighborhood will thank you for it.
I must tell you it's not looking so good with the backtesting. This system is not robust enough to muster up just that 50% win rate and reduce the consecutive losses, while maintaining the minimum of 1.25:1 Avg. win to avg. loss ratio. I will continue to post a little while longer, or a lot longer if I find something that works within the framework of this system. I hope I have not wasted anybody's time and hope that the gems shared here has helped more than one person (I already got a PM telling me I helped, from one person). I have received numerous encouraging PM's and I thank you for that. This test was just that...A test. But I must evaluate the backtest and realize the dream of mine to trade Futures while at work may not be possible to do. Actually to trade Futures profitably is hard enough on its own. Does anyone have a tweak for the formula? that I can test? I have asked Fan27 to check just the breakouts (H4 and L4) 24hrs and without Friday's Flat. We are still short in the YM from last night. Michael B.
Backtesting, schmacktesting. The fact is, had you been trading this system for real - you'd be up $4,320 or so by now. I find this to be the most evil part of system development - the initial "let's try it on paper first and backtest too". All too often the system currently works great on paper and doesn't backtest worth a crap. So why waste the time trading it on paper? Why not just trade it with real money while it is working and forget about it not working in the past. Stop trading it if/when it stops working. I'm not directing this at you ES, just in general. Seems like a trap many of us fall into.
Michael, I think you are close. I agree with Quah, when you trade real money you deal with it faster. Also last night is not a common event. I really believe markets were sold off on "knowledge" that that chap was going to be assassinated. It doesn't help when the markets are edgy to begin with.