YM Gap Down Back testing

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by Ripley, Aug 29, 2005.

  1. On days when YM gapped down 50 pts or more, what are the chances of it closing +50 pts up for the day?

    From my experience, I bet it is greater than 75%, but it would be great if I could put a number on that.

    I don't have the data or a back testing program and any help would be great.
  2. fan27


    Unfortunately, your experience does not reflect the actual data. I have tested many different Gap strategies and none are consistent. Not to say there aren't profitable ways to trade gaps. I just have not found a mechanical approach.

  3. are you kidding me?

    London bombings: Gapped down -70 pts, went up +140 pts.
    Hurricane: Gapped down around -60 pts, went up +110 pts.

    I found a way to regularly lose money when it gaps down. All you have to do is just short it. I know there has to a different way of doing it.
  4. Maybe there is a way to differentiate between gap downs based on news, and the ones without any news?