Yield Curve: What a pathetic site

Discussion in 'Economics' started by The Kin, Feb 27, 2006.

  1. I don't know if you were serious or not but ask any person who has been around through multiple cycles of any investment class - stocks, bonds, real estate, etc and almost everytime the phrase "but is is different this time" is used.
     
    #11     Feb 27, 2006
  2. Babak

    Babak

  3. I'm more worried about the Japan bond yield curve which has not inverted. When it does, it means the end of the carry trade and the summer of 1998 all over again.
     
    #13     Feb 28, 2006
  4. Another perspective could be that the free market is pricing the long end while the government is manipulating the short end. So over the long run, market participants expect rates to stay low or go lower. Which can be translated into market participants don't see any global financial catastrophes in the future. Of course this opinion could change at any moment, and that's when you'll see long rates go up.

    Has there ever been a yield curve inversion where the long end dipped below the short end? Or is it always the short end being pushed up over the long end by the fed? I believe the latter although I haven't seen the data.
     
    #14     Mar 4, 2006
  5. Remiraz

    Remiraz

    Time to arb?
     
    #15     Mar 4, 2006
  6. Alizar

    Alizar

    I agree, I started thinking about that shortly after my first post. It does appear that interest rates in the US are still much higher than Europe or Japan, so perhaps that is leading more people to invest long-term in US bonds.

    I am still not convinced that is what is happening, but it is about the only explanation that makes sense.
     
    #16     Mar 4, 2006
  7. The curve is really just flat which isn't as strong of a predictor. It's not doomsday quite yet...
     
    #17     Mar 4, 2006
  8. Muni's must be having a field day.
     
    #18     Mar 4, 2006