i don't usually make predictions, so i won't........but i will not be suprised if yhoo hits 35-37 this week.
some trading buddies of mine in NYC said the buzz on the street was that yhoo would add about 6 points if Aliababa went up 50% on the first trading day...the buzz was when yhoo was around 26. so, that brings it up 32. in Hong Kong right now, as i write this (i'm in California) Alibaba is trading at about 35, which is a 165% increase. i'll be conservative and say it closes its first day with just a 100% gain. that would mean the street expects another 6 points on top of 32...brings us up to 37/38 area later this week if the overall market cooperates.
here we go...... from Barron's Tech Trader Daily: http://blogs.barrons.com/techtrader...esday-rally-in-yahoo-shares/?mod=yahoobarrons November 6, 2007, 1:56 am Huge Surge In Alibaba.com Stock Price Following IPO Could Spur Tuesday Rally In Yahoo Shares Posted by Eric Savitz Yahoo (YHOO) seems likely to benefit Tuesday from a surge of buying in Hong Kong for shares of Alibaba.com, which started trading over night after pricing its IPO last week. Alibaba.com is being spun off from Alibaba Group, a holding company which owns a number of Chinese Internet properties. Yahoo owns a 39% stake in the parent company, which maintains a 75% stake in the spinoff, as well as a a direct stake of 1.2%. As I write this post late Monday night in California, in Hong Kong Alibaba.com shares are trading at 35.75 Hong Kong dollars, which is up 22.25, or 165%. At that price, Reuters notes, the company has a market cap of $23.2 billion. So, letâs see. Alibaba Group hold a 75% stake in Alibaba.com, which is worth $17.4 billion. Yahoo owns 39% of Alibaba Group, which puts the value of their share at $6.8 billion. The direct-owned 1.2% stake in worth about $278 million. That puts the total value of Yahooâs interest in Alibaba.com at north of $7 billion Thatâs about 16.7% of Yahooâs current $42 billion valuation. On Monday, Yahoo shares rose 25 cents to $31.36.
So where does YHOO go from here? Was today's decline a result of the politician's meddling or is this the start of a longer term trend (i.e. start of flipping after the alibaba IPO)?
They'll lose the advertising search game and surrender to Google. Or, Yahoo will be split up and sold off as separate units within the next 24 months. The execs are leaving left and right. Its like a chicken running around with no head. Not good.