[07:50] <brandon> The major stock indexes are stretched to the downside, as is the VIX. [07:51] <brandon> The key sectors to watch will be semi's, brokers/banks, biotechs. [07:51] <brandon> Watch them in that order. [07:51] <brandon> Though oversold can become more oversold I really do not see an edge right now in shorting. [07:52] <brandon> Ultimatly I think we will at least test the Sept lows, and eventually break below them-but that is not of tremendous importance right now. [07:53] <brandon> The Nasdaq is currently up 6 points and the SPs are up 4.25. [07:54] <brandon> It would be much better if the market is to gap down and get some extreme TICKs - no meaningful bottom will form with out this. [07:55] <brandon> But, I need to have at least a 60 minute bear flag to be comfortable shorting at this point, nothing moves in a straight line- we have to rest. [07:55] <brandon> There are a number of potential Oops buys, both sectors and stocks. [07:57] <brandon> At times like this I think it is better from a risk standpoint to trade broadbased sectors and indexes. (QQQ, SPY, IJR, SMH, BBH) than individual equities. [07:58] <brandon> That said there are some setups out there, the risk is higher and so is the potential. [07:58] <brandon> Worth watching for Oops buys are ERTS, SNPS, GILD, AMAT, ADI. [07:59] <brandon> The dollar is in a similar situation to the stock indexes having broken to a new 20 day low and continued lower. [08:01] <brandon> It too is stretched to the downside, so we can watching for shorting opportunities some of the major currencies, in particular the Australian Dollar (ADM2) which has shown relative weakness vs the other currencies, and the Euro (ECM2) which is forming not only a potential double top on the weekly chart, but also a possible Oops weekly short. [08:02] <brandon> Right now I dont see any edge present in the bonds or notes, though a crude head and shoulders pattern is starting to establish itself on the weekly chart. [08:02] <brandon> This will be worth watching over the next several weeks. [08:03] <brandon> Right now my major concern with the potential upside is the gap up. [08:03] <brandon> that said, at the open I will likely buy a half lot of the Nasdaq, as the odds favor a move to the upside. Brandon
Taking Profits in the Aussie. Chart is below. If you look at the other major currecies you can see what I was talking about this morning that it was the relative dog. Brandon
One of the most difficult choises that most traders will face is when to call it done. We had an interesting conversation about this today, the log of which follows. ------ [14:52] [Member] Brandon, what is easiest/hardest way to get disciplin. I did not learn even I lost my whole life's earing and under heavy debt. [14:53] <brandon> I dunno [14:53] <brandon> I never had a problem with it [14:53] <brandon> I think its something you have or you don't. [14:53] <brandon> for some people it takes a lot of pain before they find it [14:53] <brandon> and I was that way [14:54] [member] I never use stop and lost and I always think I will do next time. But I never. [14:54] <brandon> it got to the point that toni told me if I loose $1000 more iM done [14:54] <brandon> and I didnt want to be done [14:54] <brandon> so that forced discipline [14:54] [member] I always hope thing will come back and keep losing. [14:54] <brandon> well, if you honestly cant keep them, I would consider going back into the workforce [14:55] <brandon> because trading is not something that is going to help you with another job, and the longer you are out of the workforce the harder it will be/ [14:55] <brandon> you have to look at trading like a doctor looks at morphine [14:55] <brandon> here is how my doctor explained it to me [14:55] <brandon> coz you all know I have to take it every day [14:55] <brandon> and medically [14:55] <brandon> when they look at it they say [14:55] <brandon> is this making the person more or less productive? [14:55] <brandon> if its less [14:55] <brandon> then its a problem [14:56] <brandon> you have to look the same at trading [14:56] <brandon> is this overall something that is good for me [14:56] <brandon> or moving towards it? [14:56] <brandon> or am I shooting up and getting high? [14:56] <brandon> if your doing that [14:56] <brandon> you need to stop [14:56] <brandon> its not good for you [14:56] <brandon> anyway [14:57] <brandon> sorry if that is not what you were looking for [14:57] [member] After 3 years of trading I know where the problem is. But the thing is How can I implement it or change my mind to use stop and lost [14:58] <brandon> I think that if after 3 years you still cant do it [14:58] <brandon> I mean, if you cant take a stop on an individual trade [14:58] <brandon> you should take a stop on trading as a whole [14:58] <brandon> its like doing heroin, you just throwing money in the gutter and ruining your life [14:59] [member] you are 100% right [15:00] <brandon> I think that is probably a good descion for you [15:00] <brandon> and its nothing to feel ashamed of or anything at all [15:01] <brandon> most people who do come into trading [15:01] <brandon> have been very successful through out their lives [15:01] <brandon> yet 90% wont make it [15:01] <brandon> for various reasons [15:01] <brandon> so there is plenty of company in that [15:01] <brandon> it really has no bearing on anything else really [15:02] <brandon> but if you are burning through your savings, fighting with your spouse, staying up at nights [15:02] [member] but I still beleive that this is the profession where you make more than 100% [15:02] <brandon> its not something positive in your life [15:02] <brandon> and you should get out [15:02] <brandon> for some yes [15:02] <brandon> for others no [15:02] <brandon> its much easier to lose 100% than to make it [15:02][<tarzan] I agreed [15:03] <brandon> and unfortunatly [15:03] <brandon> the way the industry marketed itself in the boom [15:03] <brandon> I said it then and Ill still say it [15:03] <brandon> they should be ashamed of themselves [15:03] <brandon> it was sleazy [15:06] <brandon> I dont mean to be a downer [15:06] <brandon> but I also dont want to lie to anyone [15:06] <brandon> and sometimes it just takes the cold blunt truth to wake you up [15:07] <brandon> and Id rather have everyone cancel tonight than to feel like I helped to screw people's lives over. Brandon
My prior post is not so much on topic with the idea of the thread that yes, you can make money right now, however I think it is an important subject to touch on. Far too many people leave wishing they had done so earlier, and you should have an uncle point. That does not mean to you have to walk away forever (look at market wizards, the most common theme was persistance), but I do think that if the stock market is your heroin, you'll end up like the singer from Alice in Chaings metaphorically speaking. Brandon
Brandon, I don't see any double top on EC, it's in big monthly triangle and broke out of a daily channel that looked initially like a bear flag. Dollar index has broken a weekly trendline with MACD bearish divergence too. However I am not sure the move of the euro is for real (long term). I can't go back more than 20 years on the euro spot. BTW what's that chart package RT3? ands what's a Oops weekly short, I only know Larry Williams's Oops (gap then Oops!)
Here is the Weekly chart in the Euro as displayed with Realtick. I also have Pronet, but I like realtick a lot better. Brandon
Kickin- they may be similar... It's a wide range day on higher than average volume after several days in the trend... If it gaps down the next morning in the case of a wide range bear bar, then you buy above the wide range bar's close
The Oops that I use is very similar to Larry Williams, and possibly exactly the same. I simply look for a wide range marabozu candlestick pattern and then a reversal against that wide range the next day provided certain criteria is met. Brandon