Yes, It is possible. Real Time Idea's for "This Market"

watching amat above 25.05 for a bit of a breakout.

Brandon

 

Magna,

many illiquid and inactive stocks will show up on scanners New Kids for ex. are often illiquid , have large spreads. Scanning is great in a good market. There's always something moving of course but in this market I 'd rather stick to the few issues I know.
But it's worth taking a look at less liquid stocks when they announce earnings they then become more liquid and active thus more predictable.

 

should take some profits in AMAT. 25.31

 

The over-riding theme right now is that there are pretty thin odds. Inet and connections to software and brokers has been spotty across the board, there was the newsflush in the market etc. So, your odds are just in general low. At times like this, it really pays to realize that cash is a valid POSITION to have in the market.

Brandon

 

Ok here is a call: short ES, (NQ) stop 1094. RETEST 1088

 

MOVE STP 1091.5

allright the time stamps are not accurate , so posting calls here doesn't make sense.

 

I trade with the clock and make sure in it's in synch with my quote providers up to the second. Anyway if you edit you get editing time now 2:36

 

slow day today. the inet was messed up, and the odds just favored not doing much. I'll be gone tomorrow to get my head examined (literally), so will return on monday with more idea's. Enjoy your weekend.

B

 

April 29

Caution on the market's upside potential was obviously well-warranted Friday. After a minor move out of the open into the 5 minute 200 sma resistance in the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500, the market began to sell off rapidly. Over the past week we've looked at the support which had hit with previous lows very skeptically. The volume during the selling was average and the Commodity Channel Index (P=15) still had a great deal of room to move to the downside. On Friday we saw the market give way to new lows on the year in the Nasdaq while the S&P 500 pulled into support at the year's lows.

Intraday Friday we saw trend day action. Thursday was a narrow range day, the narrowest of the previous four, contributing to the odds of a trend day and with just a mild gap and strong resistance intraday hitting at the same time as the 9:45 reversal period, it did not take much to pull the market under the morning lows. The initial wave of selling lasted until the 11:15 reversal period, the last reversal period before the mid-day doldrums hit, and while the Nasdaq corrected to the 5 minute 20 sma before breaking lower over noon, the S&Ps consolidated, not breaking again until it, along with the Nasdaq, hit the 15 minute 20 sma resistance early in the afternoon.

In the S&P and Dow Jones Ind. Ave. the afternoon breakdown was comparable in strength and price as the one off highs into the doldrums. This equal move is common following consolidations and it is an easy way to help pinpoint support and resistance to establish a target for those taking the breakout off the consolidation. When that equal move would place the stock or index at another strong support or resistance area, such as the previous lows in the S&Ps, it can really add to your success in establishing an accurate target.

With last week's move, the S&P 500 signaled the setup of a bear flag. There isn't much for support until September 2001 lows hit. The Nasdaq also does not have much for support until Sept. lows, but the should hit faster in the Nasdaq than the S&P. Since so much of the rally in recent months has come in mid-caps and small-caps, and last week a number of them slowed after a very strong leg up, I would start to expect them to give way, adding to the selling in market overall.

Midcaps have hit strong resistance at prior highs on the monthly charts (see MDY) and small caps are trying on high volume to hold the 20 day sma (see IJR.) These have been where we have been focused for buying pullbacks in recent weeks and, after scanning this weekend, I've found very few that are of interest right now. Usually on a pullback where you expect more upside the volume will decrease as it comes into 10-20 day sma support. In the small and midcaps, however, you can see the volume has increased dramatically over the past several days.

I would look for the support to hold for several days, giving short setups late in the week as the support breaks. For this pattern, the best success comes if the move off the support is gradual and hugs the moving average support it hit to form a bear flag type of pattern. It is also preferable is the last rally was the strongest in the trend. CHGO was a great example last week, as was BFT, and AD, LSS, and SBGI are setting up going into Monday. These have light volume though, so they have a lot higher risk associated with them because you have to jump in before they breakdown or else you will not be able to enter at all. As such, these should be avoided by most traders. The pattern is one of my favorites and great for most traders when you have a stock with good liquidity. I call it the Avalanche because it tends to follow through right away and drop rapidly to the next moving average support level. Since we don't have a really extreme upside move in the small and midcaps as a whole there is added risk. One way to decrease the risk is to find a few individual stocks within the small or mid-caps to trade instead of taking the tracking stocks.

There are a few other options to watch out for since the last upside move was not extreme in the small and midcaps. If the indexes do not hug the moving average support and instead let go to the upside right away, then they will stand a better chance of breaking prior highs. This tends to happen with decreasing volume on the pullback and increasing volume as it breaks higher.If they hold for just 2-3 days and then let go and break higher then I would expect previous highs to hold and the indexes to fall into a triangle pattern. I do consider the Avalanche to be the most likely pattern, however, and my main focus is on stocks forming this pattern in this section of the market.

Now, if you go back to the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500, even with the rapid bear move lately and increased volume, there is still a bit more room to move lower. The CCI still hasn't hit strong oversold levels yet at -200. The morning reversal periods will provide support and, if the market gaps lower and sells off right away, the 10:15 tends to be the most common area for a reversal. I would expect that any morning downside will likely subside by late morning to early afternoon to correct from the bear move.

I'm still not keen on new swingtrades. Patterns like AD daily and 30 minute (albeit with better volume than this stock) will still tend to offer nice longer term daytrades and potential for swings on the short side. For upside I'd look for stocks which had wide range downside days Friday on higher than average volume, such as OSIP, for intraday opportunities as daytrades.

Upcoming Economic Reports and Events:
April 29: Personal Income for Mar. (8:30 am), Personal Spending for Mar. 8:30 am)
April 30: Chicago PMI for April (10:00 am), Consumer Confidence for Apr. (10:00 am)
May 1: Auto Sales for Apr. (12:00 am), Truck Sales for Apr. (12:00 am), Construction Spending for Mar. (10:00 am), ISM Index for Apr. (10:00 am)


Earnings Announcements of Interest:
Only stocks with an average daily volume of 300K+ are listed. (A) = Earnings after the close, (B) = Earnings before the open, (?) = Earnings time not specified at the time of this writing
April 29: ACDO (B), ALO (A), CHTR (B), CHK (A), CSGS (?), EOP (B), FHCC (B), FMKT (A), GNSS (A), GSPN (A), HUM (7:00 AM ET), JP (A), KG (B), LOOK (A), MVSN (A), ONIS (A), REI (?), RRI (B), RSG (A), ROH (B), TERN (A), TEVA (?), YUM (A), TSM (B), UMC (1:00 AM ET), XL (A)
April 30: ALGX (A), AHAA (A), AMT (5:00 AM ET), PATH (B), AU (B), AOC (?), AOT (B), ASCL (A), BP (B), CTLM (A), CB (B), CNET (A), CEFT (B), CAM (B), DCX (?), DYN (B), EOG (?), EL (B), FLR (A), FWC (A), GILD (A), JNY (B), KTC (?), KCIN (A), LGTO (B), MXIM (A), MCK (B), OMC (B), PCAR (B), PG (?), QSFT (A), Q (B), RDRT (A), SONE (A), SCNT (B), SEPR (B), TELM (A), RIG (B), VLO (B), VSH (B), VITR (A), WSH (B)
May 1: ACE (?), ILA (B), ABX (?), CHPC (A), CRUS (A), CMS (?), CMCSK (?), CNC (B), EC (B), EQR (2:00 PM ET), GG (A), HMT (?), INCY (A), NWL (B), OIIM (A), OHP (B), PHSY (A), PCLN (A), PLD (A), DNY (?), SHPGY (7:00 AM ET), WEN (?)