Yes, It is possible. Real Time Idea's for "This Market"

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Brandonf, Apr 24, 2002.

  1. janko

    janko

    Well i thought that this thread was about different strategies and not making calls during the trading day,i guess if i wanted calls i woudl go to the chat room. So if we can get away from this making calls during the day and jsut simply post whats working whats not, obviously with certain examples, i think this will be an educative thread. Things are always changing and with the way mkts are and we're headed into summer time, it will be challenging to make some $$$ so that is why i and maybe others are reading this- always soaking up valuable info, and learn or experiment with what works for you. Thats all>
     
    #91     May 1, 2002
  2. Toni

    Toni

    The markets finally showed a bit of gumption Tuesday (I can't believe I used the word "gumption." <g>) After a pretty lack-luster open, the Consumer Confidence report came out for April which offered a ray of hope to market participants. The market pounced on the news, snatched it up and ran like there was no tomorrow. The Dow Jones Industrial Average alone jumped over 100 points in a mere 15 minutes before running smack into the 10:15 am et reversal zone and the 5 minute 200 simple moving average. This set off a number of Phoenix patterns as mentioned in yesterday's commentary in individual Nasdaq and S&P issues.

    From there the markets fell into a trading range which broke more quickly than most, just after 11:00 am et. This led the way to new highs intraday in the Dow as well as Nasdaq, S&P 500 and the rest of the bullish driven sectors. With the breakout, the doji I talked about yesterday broke, taking out the highs and signaling a reversal.

    Alas, I missed out on the fun though. With the breakout occurring so quickly I attached to it added risk, not fully appreciated the significance of such a breakout until too late. Such things will happen to everyone from time to time, however, so you'll find that the less time you spend dwelling on it, the better. Instead you need to step back and look at the overall picture.

    Here's what that picture said to me: If you look at the chart of the SPY on the 5 minute chart below, you'll notice something about each rally. Each rally was smaller than the previous one. This is not a good sign if you are expecting a trend to keep going, and it's not a good sign if you are looking for an upside breakout later in the afternoon either. The reason is that with each rally, more and more traders are getting caught. Those that wanted in have got in and it's really very comparable to mining for gold. Say you have a mountain that starts out plentiful. Pretty soon everyone's heard about the mountain and comes to stake a claim. Over time it becomes harder and harder to find the gold, but you still have all those miners how are invested in the pursuit. Not fun... Those who fail will start to leave but since the news has spread there are still latecomers showing up. Nevertheless, eventually the word will get around that the mountain is depleted and it's a waste of time trying to keep mining there.

    This brings us to the triple top I have shown in the 15 minute charts. Typically, the third time resistance is tested, it will break. There are times it won't though, and when you have rounded highs, such as with the smaller and smaller rallies, then the risk increases that the resistance will hold. Now, most traders know the third time will break. So, what happens if it doesn't? A lot of disappointment and often panic. It's the stuff breakdowns are made of.

    After the bonds closed, the markets tried for that third high and breakout but failed, pulling in to break the support of the trading range which had been in place since noon. This also brought it under the 15 minute 20 sma support. The next support zone will fall at the 30 and 60 minute 20 simple moving averages. This support should offer some more upside.

    For swingtrades I still favor those which have pulled back more gradually than the overall market and are now coming off the 10-20 day sma zone. The next resistance intraday will be the 15 minute 200 sma followed by the 30 min 200 sma. Both of these will tend to stall the move the first time they hit, as do the 10 and 20 day simple moving averages so watch out for them.



    Upcoming Economic Reports and Events:
    May 1: Auto Sales for Apr. (12:00 am), Truck Sales for Apr. (12:00 am), Construction Spending for Mar. (10:00 am), ISM Index for Apr. (10:00 am)
    May 2: Initial Claims 4/27 (8:30 am), Factory Orders for Mar. (10:00 am)
    May 3: Average Work Week for Apr. (8:30 am), Hourly Earnings for Apr. (8:30 am), Nonfarm Payrolls for Apr (8:30 am), ISM Services for Apr. (10:00 am)

    Earnings Announcements of Interest:
    Only stocks with an average daily volume of 300K+ are listed. (A) = Earnings after the close, (B) = Earnings before the open, (?) = Earnings time not specified at the time of this writing
    May 1: ACE (?), ILA (B), ABX (?), CHPC (A), CRUS (A), CMS (?), CMCSK (?), CNC (B), EC (B), EQR (2:00 PM ET), GG (A), HMT (?), INCY (A), NWL (B), OIIM (A), OHP (B), PHSY (A), PCLN (A), PLD (A), DNY (?), SHPGY (7:00 AM ET), WEN (?)
    May 2: ACL (?), AYE (A), APCC (A), AMKR (4:30 PM ET), AVNT (A), CVC (B), CPN (B), CI (?), CLX (B), DVN (B), DISH (6:00 AM ET), EP (B), ELN (8:30 AM ET), EMR (A), GNTA (?), GENU (B), GOLD (?), GRP (B), HCR (?), HNT (B), HRC (?), HL (B), ICN (B), INHL (?), JHF (A), NTBK (?), PRGN (A), SC (?), SKYW (B), SII (B), SITE (B), STEL (A), IPG (A), TKTX (A), USON (B)
    May 3: -
     
    #92     May 1, 2002
  3. Toni

    Toni

    QQQ
     
    #93     May 1, 2002
  4. Toni

    Toni

    spy
     
    #94     May 1, 2002
  5. Toni

    Toni

    Looking for a triangle breakout buy in DL above $21 with a stop under $20.35 to be raised quickly to under the 5 min 200 sma and then under the lows of the base of $20.75 intraday.
     
    #95     May 1, 2002
  6. Brandonf

    Brandonf Sponsor

    Watching AHC as a short under $76.55. Stops above $77.60.

    Brandon
     
    #96     May 1, 2002
  7. Babak

    Babak

    Toni, can I make a suggestion? could you simply provide a link to Farley's website rather than cut/pasting your commentary plus all the different graphs?

    Just thought it would be simpler and easier for you. :)
     
    #97     May 1, 2002
  8. Brandonf

    Brandonf Sponsor

    [08:41] <Brandon> 08:41:11 BUY ALERT : NQ above 1276
    [08:41] <Brandon> 08:41:18 Attention: stops under 1270
     
    #98     May 1, 2002
  9. Brandonf

    Brandonf Sponsor

    Cancel the buy above 1276 in the NQ. It should have responded by now to the strong TICKs and has not. Right now Im watching PPDI, its gapped up strongly and is holding well, basing. Looking to be long above 26.25 in PPDI.

    Brandon
     
    #99     May 1, 2002
  10. Brandonf

    Brandonf Sponsor

    BCE holding very well its gap from several days ago, not filling it in yadda yadda. its basing near highs (see the 120 minute chart). This is an example of a breakout type of trade were you can get an edge.

    Brandon
     
    #100     May 1, 2002