$/Yen...

What's up with the monster bid in $/Yen at 106.90. Central bank bid? Please don't speculate. I know that the central bank is buying billions, blah, blah. I'm interested to know if anyone really knows who is on the 106.90 bid in $/Yen for the last 2 weeks? Thanks!

 

Whoever it was at the bid just left . . . followed swiftly by a bout of BoJ buying -- fun ride eh?

 

Incredibly interesting. To me it's clear that the central bank was on the 106.90 bid dropped it then bought dollars at the market. Nonetheless, the Yen cannot be weakened. I just bought some Yen to add to my position. The central bank is fighting a lost cause. If I had the power of George Soros, I would do the same to the BOJ now that he did with the BoE in the early 90's. In fact, I wouldn't doubt if he is working that as we speak! . This is going to be interesting to watch the BOJ in their futile attempt at keeping the Yen artificially weak. Get ready for an explosive ride in $/Yen soon. Load up on those options! Neal.

 

thanks.

 

the BOJ is running out of money for this fiscal year and once that happen, it's going to fun..

 

Yes, long Yen looks good here.

Question:

At this very moment my IB quotes for 6JH4 are 88 bid at 9370, 70 offer at 9374.

But I have a bid in through Refco at 9372. In fact my Refco feed is showing two bids at 9372. Why isn't this showing up through IB??

Thanks

 

Now Refco showing trades at 9374 but nothing at IB ... uggh.

 

My guess is that IB is showing the actual Globex (?) electronic market session. Refco is probably running an internal system as they are market participants as well. My guess is that when you get filled through Refco the other side of the trade is Refco. When you get filled through IB, it is the actual electronic market that is filling you. I'm not too sure about these issues however, I mostly trade the spot and futures utilizing EFPs (Exchange for physical).

 

Probably, saw the same case in the opposite direction w/ ES options. IB provides ES option quotes to clients but not externally. I got my JPY executions so no sweat.

Speaking of Yen, thoughts on the Nikkei? Usually I lean bearish in 1Q as banks are usually working down their stock holdings during this period. This year though, I'm not sure. Leaning long now as momentum is bullish, and bank selling is usually completed about mid-quarter. Even if we dip in 1Q I will probably add to my position and look for another upside breakout during summer ...

 

Nikkei be long and buy on dips.