look how energetic this break is. even at the 1-minute chart. 5 impulsive waves up, 3 correction, and repeat makes me feel we might break the yearly high easily
That's really interesting, I have a lot to learn about price action. All I saw was: sideways movement after a break of resistance (103.40 or so, finally cleared in earnest when CME futs were closed and you added to your long), followed by a break above 103.6 a few hours after you posted the chart. Never thought to study the price action on smaller timeframes in terms of waves to determine strength. It just still seems a bit like a bunch of random, hard to quantify noise/randomness/chop (on the smaller timeframes). Thanks for sharing. You know, for years, I figured chart patterns and the like were enough to find usable trading signals. And, perhaps by chance, these do seem to work from time to time. I studied the markets from afar (large timeframes only) for years, seeing big obvious opportunities such as major consolidation leading to huge trends (in real time, not hindsight), while I worked and put together my risk stake. But now that I am trading live and watching every tick of the market, I realize that I'm basically driving the car without being able to see outside the windshield. This seems to have an affect on my confidence, particularly in this case as I still look for amateur counter-trend trades at resistance (e.g. shorting here at 103.40), ignoring the big picture and fundamentals. It's interesting.. I told myself when I started this year that I would limit my trading to only the big, obvious trades that come around once every few months (such as the huge triangle on the Yen from the start of this thread), that seem to have a high probability just from looking at the weekly chart (very slow motion plays at such a timeframe). But, after seeing how you are looking at things on the smaller timescales, it really helps to see how much I don't know. Gotta start somewhere. Real eye opener.. thanks man.
I don't advocate sitting through a bear market rally. I'd rather trade in and out of the position to improve my price. Yen may go all the way back to the 200 day ma but it will turn down again. "We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender..."
I flipped my bullish USD/JPY bias around .. too many factors telling me to rather look in the other direction. I am anticipating bearish breakouts of EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. I have yet to begin building a short USD/JPY position too. The next 1-2 weeks shall bring some long-awaited action in these pairs, I hope.