Greenspan - Feb 27, 2003 "The notion of a bubble bursting and the whole price level [of the housing market] coming down to me, as far as a nationwide phenomenon, is really quite unlikely." Bernanke - Dec 3, 2010 "One myth that's out there is that what we're doing is printing money. We're not printing money." Yellen - 2012 "While admirers of capitalism, we also to a certain extent believe it has limitations that require government intervention in markets to make them work." {sure you do} Volcker - 1994 "The truly unique power of a central bank, after all, is the power to create money, and ultimately the power to create is the power to destroy." {the only one of the bunch who really knows what the Fed should and shouldn't be doing}
If I were running for office your comments are great campaign stump speeches. But I am just a small time trader trying to make a buck. The reality is I cannot do anything or influence any of this whatsoever, whether I agree or disagree. So, what can I do to survive? Move away, perhaps to a small south pacific island that doesn't trade with the US or accept our currency....?
%% Not really.A large group of them may keep trending on; not a prediction . Not likely to be a another crisis in the life of a 90 year old LOL-True
%% LOL-Good news SunT . But Mr Greenspan got his dime[ten cents] allowance right as a kid[ Silver dime ;the paper money king confessed]
Some officials are under this impression because a lot of quantitative regulation has been applied to banks namely: B3/B4(soon)/IFRS9(soon) and they are right in saying that under their current portfolios banks are a lot safer in that when you model house prices crashing your banks still end up with enough equity to support senior claims (up to depositors, aka the public). but it happens that these regulations are actually shit at preventing shit loans: see pic: The countries whose banks had the best CET1 ratios pre crisis are actually the ones with higher % of shit loans post crisis. the reason is that this prompts RWA (risk weighted assets) optimization; basically depending on your situation (country, past debtor history, mood of regulator vis à vis your institution) you get to calculate an average for which the coeficients are calculated by either 1) your own internal model 2) a model proposed by the regulator. Guess which one they opt for ? Recently they put some thresholds on the coeficients but oh well.
%% Cool charts NS; maybe for the smaller/medium banks, but that is life. Banks did much, much better when they included , in the CCCC; character. They still do the collateral, capacity to pay, conditions, for loan requirements.........................................................................................................
http://www.businessinsider.com/alan-greenspan-irrational-exuberance-2014-12 LOL http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-14/janet-yellen-concerned-about-bubble-stock-prices-her-answer At least mom and pop get a warning this time.
%% Good question, D risk ,because i dont usually believe BAC. LOL Strangely she was mostly right in 2015[ OK hind sight]; but MODERN TRADER magazine[AUG, mailed this week, 2017] had a great article about why[ much better than BAC opinion] ;the bull market is not near nine years old. I dont look @ PE that much; but i know IBD comments on PE are much better than BAC. But like IBD notes ;easy to take 30 stocks down[paraphrase] .Thanks
Im not interested in PE except for evaluation in private company stock. Fundamentals, T/A, and all of that gibberish means nothing to stocks. Seriously, it's like a whole industry was invented to fool people. The concern I have is what she's forecasting, and I'm not speaking about interest rates. Remember this, the economic policy advisors and the Fed always move in ways inimical to your interests. I'm not going to give you too much help because it's late, but read up on Richard Werner and take that into consideration before you decide to hold positions longer than a day. Also, at least someone can see through the B.S. they spew constantly! Nice to meet you.
%% About the only thing i've seen worse than PE errors; is WSJ, multitudes of PE, in the form of line charts, i wish i had time to expose all those flaws LOL PE could help if buying the whole company, not that that would be the most important LOL