Hamas emerges from Gaza’s tunnels, showing it never lost control - analysis By SETH J. FRANTZMAN JANUARY 19, 2025 People gather as Hamas militants terrorists for the handover of hostages to the Red Cross in Gaza City, January 19, 2025 (photo credit: REUTERS/MAHMOUD AL-BASOS) Hamas has impressive control over every aspect of Gaza, from local media to hospitals and schools. It will galvanize all of this to help portray this as a victory for the group. Hamas appears to be emerging from tunnels and rubble in Gaza to show that it never lost control of most of the area despite fifteen months of war. While Hamas suffered many blows from the IDF, it was able to recruit new members, and it even kept trucks and vans ready to return to the streets and show its presence. Videos purported to be from Gaza show the group in white pickup trucks driving around. The videos show large groups of armed men waving to crowds or standing and sitting on vehicles that are parading them through the streets. Hamas police, an arm of the terrorist group, are also reappearing. They have been around throughout the war, but their presence has not been as clearly felt in some areas.Throughout the war, some NGOs and other international organization officials complained that the lack of Hamas police, or their being targeted by the IDF, was leading to a breakdown in law and order. In essence, many groups linked to the international community that work in Gaza prefer working with Hamas and its police.Palestinian media such as Quds has shown the images and videos from Gaza, depicting this as a Hamas victory. They portray the videos as showing “Palestinian factions,” and not just Hamas. They also show civilians celebrating alongside the gunmen. Shehab media, which is linked to Hamas, also has put out videos showing the “victory” they claim in Gaza. One shows masses of Hamas gunmen in a stylized video, clearly produced for this moment, with the men appearing to emerge from a kind of tunnel. Palestinian Hamas terrorists parade following a ceasefire agreement in Gaza City, January 19, 2025. (credit: Dawoud Abu Alkas/Reuters) Another image Shehab put out shows October 7, with Hamas pulling a wounded Israeli soldier out of a tank that Hamas destroyed, and contrasts it with Hamas holding aloft rifles on top of white trucks in Gaza, declaring victory. Many other local and international media and activists are showing images from Gaza. This includes Al Jazeera and also local Gazans.The videos may be meant for propaganda in some cases, but the overall message is clear. Hamas has emerged from tunnels in Gaza and from the rubble in some areas and is clearly in control. The group never disappeared and was never dismantled. Back in March 2024, The Washington Post reported that “the IDF says it has ‘dismantled’ 20 of the original 24 Hamas battalions. Dismantled does not mean destroyed.” Indeed, dismantled did not mean destroyed. Hamas has reemerged quickly. This is not a group that seems to have suffered nearly as many losses as depicted, or it has been able to replace most of the losses and maintain command and control. History repeating itself This is not surprising; Hamas has done the same thing after other rounds of fighting. Hamas emerged in the late 1980s, mostly in Gaza. It continued to gain support in the 1990s, opposing the Oslo peace deal. After the Second Intifada, it emerged stronger, despite losing many of its leaders to Israeli airstrikes. Hamas then took over Gaza in 2007 after winning Palestinian elections. It went on to reemerge after the 2009 and 2014 wars. In May 2021, a brief conflict with Israel once again showed how Hamas is often underestimated by Israel.At the time, the IDF was portrayed as having an impressive track record of striking Hamas tunnels. One report said Israel had “pulverized” Hamas’s underground “metro” of tunnels. Another report from Israel Hayom said Israel had destroyed 100 km. of Hamas tunnels and eliminated 25 “top” operatives. Hamas actually emerged unscathed from this conflict.Hamas is emerging in Gaza quickly to take control and showcase its abilities. It wants to portray this as a major victory, even if it suffered many losses. It doesn’t want any vacuum to emerge or any areas to emerge where it loses control.As the IDF withdraws, Hamas wants to enter quickly. It doesn’t want anyone in Gaza to get the idea that Hamas is weak or to have room to critique the group. Hamas will mobilize masses to come out and cheer. Then it will try to exploit this.Hamas will want to begin to tackle reconstruction and invite the media to try to showcase the destruction. Each step of the way will be choreographed by Hamas’s media machine. Hamas has impressive control over every aspect of Gaza, from local media to hospitals and schools. It will galvanize all of this to portray this as a victory for the group.
You can make a clear case that Netanyahu failed in his objective to eliminate Hamas as the governing and militant entity in Gaza. Due to ceasefire without clear elimination of Hamas there are parties in Netanyahu’s coalition government threatening to no longer support him — possibly leading to his loss of power. The failure to remove Hamas — who are already claiming they will do another October 7th attack (I guess the lesson did not sink in) — will certainly assure that this ceasefire is temporary (which would be very unfortunate for the civilians in Gaza).
The lesson for Israel is have the IDF finish the job. The lesson for Hamas is that -- unless you want over 25,000 of your militants dead and Gaza turned into a wasteland -- then don't attack Israel. This lesson does not appear to have sunk home with Hamas -- they are all jihadi and claiming they will do it again.
Repetition. If Fort Israel is taking land, and holding prisoners, then Hamas MUST attack them. Fort Israel's might does not make them right. (Nice rounding up on the mix of actual combatants among the casualties, btw.)
Trump is not pulling the plug. Have you been watching the statements coming out of his incoming administration officials. Basically saying that Israel should go into Gaza and forcibly remove every Palestinian. Sadly this entire Gaza situation is not resolved whatsoever despite a ceasefire. Just a matter of time before the conflict starts again IMO -- to the detriment of all the Palestinian civilians in Gaza.