Yawn....... Israel attacked by Hamas

Cuddles · Mar 23, 2024

gwb-trading said:
Statistically the number of deaths put forward by the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry are obviously fake.

Biden use of Hamas death count challenged by prominent statistician, says numbers 'aren't accurate'
President Biden used the Hamas run ministry of health numbers during his State of the Union address this month
https://www.foxnews.com/world/biden...nent-statistician-says-numbers-arent-accurate

During President Biden's State of the Union speech, he used the Gaza death count produced by the Hamas-run ministry of health, quoting some 30,000 deaths. Those numbers have been scrutinized by a renowned University of Pennsylvania statistician who has cast serious doubt on the figures.

Abraham Wyner revealed in an interview with Fox News Digital that the U.S.-designated terrorist movement, Hamas, issued fake casualty numbers in its war against Israel. Wyner is a tenured professor of statistics and data science at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and faculty co-director of the Wharton Sports Analytics and Business Initiative.

His dramatic findings have ostensibly debunked many of the Hamas causality claims accepted at face value by President Biden’s administration, the U.N. and many major mainstream media organizations.

Possibly furthering Wyner's calculation, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently announced that 13,000 terrorists had been killed in Gaza since the IDF went in. Wyner disputes the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry's number that of the more than 30,000 Palestinians who have died since October 7, the majority are children and women.

Hamas invaded southern Israel on October 7 and slaughtered 1,200 people, including over 30 Americans.

He said he "was able to show that these numbers aren't right" and, based on the number that Israel’s government is reporting, that the casualty rate "instead of, being 70% women and children, it's probably closer to 30% to 35% women and children" in the Gaza Strip.

Wyner revealed in an interview with Fox News Digital that the U.S.-designated terrorist movement, Hamas, issued fake casualty numbers in its war against Israel.

The core of Wyner’s analysis revolves around statistical variability and correlation. He said "Hamas had claimed, and is continuing to claim, that approximately 70% of the casualties have been women and children. They are not reporting, or had at the time, and by mid-November, had not reported that Israel had killed any of its own fighters."

Wyner continued, "But they weren't differentiating between fighters and civilians . . . they were reporting that there were just not very many men dying. Subsequently, by February, they reported that about 25% of the casualties were their own fighters, which left a strange situation . . . there just aren't enough civilian men dying."

He added, "They're just they're missing. And what we call the missing male problem, which suggests that the numbers as being represented aren't accurate."

According to Wyner, "And so what that means is the number of people dying every day is almost the same. It isn't changing very much, and that just didn't make any sense to me. In war, there should be variability. Variability coming from war plans, from lulls, from intense increases in activity. And none of that was observable in the data. There was what we call too little dispersion."

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, during a recent press briefing, was asked why Biden had quoted the Hamas numbers in an interview. ,

Jean-Pierre said, "What we — we have said — we’ve been really clear: There are publicly available data that showed, sadly, how many — how many deaths that we have seen in Gaza. And the President has been very clear. There’s too much. It’s tragic. It’s tragic what we’re seeing. And the President’s going to keep — continue to speak to that."

When approached by Fox News Digital about Wyner’s report, which was first published in March by the online magazine Tablet, a U.S. State Department spokesperson said "Far too many civilians have been killed in this conflict. Every civilian death in conflict is a tragedy. Deaths are not mere statistics; they’re lost futures, dreams and potential."

The State Department did not refute Wyner’s findings. In late October, President Biden said he has "no confidence in the number that the Palestinians are using" for the death toll in Gaza.

However, both Biden and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin have since January adopted the Hamas numbers as truth, only to have to walk back their statistics as coming from the jihadi terrorist entity Hamas.

Wyner does not dispute the State Department contention about the tragedy of civilian deaths, noting, "The ratio of casualties, civilian casualties to military casualties is in the realm of 1 to 1. And historically, that's actually an excellent sign of intense care being placed to just target enemies and keep the civilian population as safe as possible, recognizing that war is horrible and war does produce collateral damage, as in every loss of life is tragic, but war is tragic, and war causes death."

But he stresses that "The stakes are extremely high. Hamas's only path to victory, whatever it may be, is through international pressure, namely through the United States. And the only way they can get there is to convince the United States that the civilian casualties are not coming with a commensurate military gain. And that would potentially cause Israel to be forced into a cease-fire, whether that's permanent or temporary. That is, leaves Hamas in place."

Wyner said about the lack of correlation in Hamas’ data, "The basic idea is that on days where there isn't very much bombing, you should see just a few children and women dying. And there's more. You should see more women and children dying on days where there's lots of civilian casualties as opposed to fighters. You should see a few women and children, and on days where there's lots of civilians dying, you should see lots of women and children. But that relationship wasn't there. It was what we call uncorrelated."

A spokeswoman from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs(OCHA) told Fox News Digital, "The United Nations relies on the Health Ministry in Gaza as a source for casualties figures in that area, as it is nearly impossible at the moment to provide any UN verification on a day-to-day basis. Any of their data used in our products is clearly sourced."

The U.N. does not classify Hamas as a terrorist organization.

Critics have lamented that many legacy news organizations and politicians have failed to differentiate between civilians and Hamas terrorists who were killed during the war—as well as highlight that a terrorist organization, with a reported history of fabricating death tolls, supplies the numbers.

Wyner said that the left-of-center Israeli daily Haaretz reported in 2011—two years after the 2009 Israeli operation in Gaza against Hamas terrorists—that "Hamas admitted that the numbers that it had been telling the public about the size of their losses, of their fighter losses, which they had reported to be 49, was actually over 700, which was exactly what Israel had said it was in the very beginning."

He added, "So Israel has a good record of keeping track of the number of Hamas fighters that it kills, and Hamas doesn't have a good record. Yet, the media was largely ignoring Israel's claims or, when reporting them at all, noticing that they are unverifiable. Yet, the data right in front of you, coming from Hamas, showed pretty clear evidence that there is significant problems with the numbers. They don't match reality."
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Wyner lol

Some other beauties by professor Wyner:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1770226449116430688.html

gwb-trading · Mar 23, 2024

Hamas does not care about the Palestinians in Gaza. The Hamas leaders simply want a guarantee that Israel will not assassinate them if they leave Gaza to live a life of luxury elsewhere with their stolen millions in aid funding.

Israel is considering Hamas demand to not assassinate its senior officials
Israeli officials have suggested they might consider a permanent ceasefire if Hamas’s Gaza leadership leave the Strip and go into exile.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-793372

Spike Trader · Mar 23, 2024

themickey said:
"Hey Blinken, here's to your diplomacy! We thank you for the guns, now you can fuck off back home."
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Cuddles · Mar 24, 2024

Spike Trader said:

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let's not fucking go there for the love of god.....why would Israel care to hit Russia by proxy?

but did you know ISIS also hit Iran back in Jan. as Iran/Hamas proxy accusations were flyin'? Shortly after Iran bombed a few Mossad, American, and ISIS targets

gwb-trading · Mar 24, 2024

And they keep claiming Hamas is not in the hospitals.

Israel detains over 500 Hamas and PIJ terrorists in raid on Gaza’s Al Shifa Hospital
https://nypost.com/2024/03/22/world...hters-in-raid-on-gazas-al-shifa-hospital-idf/

themickey · Mar 24, 2024

So I began reading this below and thought, "hmmmm, this sounds like bs...."
......................

Why This Pollster Says the Press Is Wrong About the Politics of Israel
Mark Mellman says Biden won’t lose Michigan because of the war in Gaza.

President Joe Biden joins Israel's prime minister for the start of the Israeli war cabinet meeting in Tel Aviv on Oct. 18, 2023. | Pool photo by Miriam Alster
By Ryan Lizza 03/23/2024
https://www.politico.com/news/magaz...ried-that-israel-will-sink-joe-biden-00148665

Ryan Lizza is a Playbook Co-Author and the Chief Washington Correspondent for POLITICO

How worried should Joe Biden be about the Muslim American vote in Michigan? What’s the fallout from Chuck Schumer’s speech lambasting Benjamin Netanyahu? And which progressive critics of Israel are actually in danger of losing their primaries?

Mark Mellman has been wrestling with these questions as both a longtime Democratic pollster and as a prominent advocate for pro-Israel policies. As the president of Democratic Majority for Israel, Mellman is targeting House Democrats seen as hostile to the Jewish state. But he’s also a realist....... continues at link above.
...............................
So I thought, "who is this Mark Mellman?"
Well surprise surprise.....

Mellman began political work during his Yale graduate studies. Mellman worked on Connecticut congressional candidate Bruce Morrison's ultimately successful 1981 campaign. Following this, Mellman formed Information Associates in Washington, D.C.; in 1986, the group was incorporated as The Mellman Group.

Kerry's presidential campaign Mellman's was an early Mellman Group, a race Kerry ultimately lost. Speaking after the election, Mellman says he foresaw the outcome of the Swiftboat campaign against Kerry. As the campaign grew, with advertising and coverage heavy on right-wing media such as Fox News and the Drudge Report, Mellman says he saw in the polls a tide turning against Kerry.

In January 2019, Mellman and other Democratic strategists started Democratic Majority for Israel, a group whose mission is to promote pro-Israel candidates among Democrats, especially in primary elections.

Mellman regularly participates in AIPAC conferences, for example speaking at a 2019 AIPAC event in Columbus alongside Neil Newhouse and working directly for AIPAC in the past. In 2015, Mellman consulted for a $25 million advertising campaign for the AIPAC-funded group Nuclear Free Iran. Based on the premise that increased exposure to details of the deal would lead most Americans to oppose it, Mellman's campaign recommendations aimed to disrupt the Iran nuclear agreement by increasing public skepticism. Mellman's firm received a quarter million dollars for its work. Mellman has consulted for other Jewish and pro-Israel organizations as well.

As of 2016, Mellman was president of the American Association of Political Consultants.

Since Yair Lapid entered politics, Mellman acted as a senior strategist for him. He describes his relationship Lapid and Yesh Atid as differing from his other clients. He notes that this relationship goes back very far, with Mellman helping decide the name of the party.

Positions
In 2013, Mellman commented on increasing sympathy for Palestinian over Israelis among Democrats according to polling data. Mellman argued that this shift remained small, representing a minority of the Democratic base. However, Mellman suggested handling the issue while it remained minor. He said the best way to do so would be by appealing to specific communities through their own angles, such as LGBT issues, immigration, and health care access, while at the same time confronting the Israel issue head on.[10] In late 2019, Mellman commented on a speech by Senator and Democratic Party presidential candidate Bernie Sanders to the liberal Jewish group J Street. Mellman opposed Sanders' suggestion that he would use the $3.8 billion in US aid to Israel as leverage to promote humanitarian policies in the Gaza strip. Mellman suggested that any aid cuts to Israel is not supported by the majority of Democrats and that the considerable support Sanders received for this position at the J Street event does not represent a majority of the Jewish community.

In 2010, Mellman suggested that Rasmussen Reports tended to be the most heavily stacked against Democratic candidates in elections.

Mellman opposed Sanders' run for president, supported Eliot Engel's run for a New York congressional seat against successful challenger Jamaal Bowman, and opposes Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions tactics against Israel.

Personal details
Mellman is an active member of the Modern Orthodox synagogue Kesher Israel in Washington, D.C.

WIKI

Cuddles · Mar 24, 2024

gwb-trading said:
And they keep claiming Hamas is not in the hospitals.

Israel detains over 500 Hamas and PIJ terrorists in raid on Gaza’s Al Shifa Hospital
https://nypost.com/2024/03/22/world...hters-in-raid-on-gazas-al-shifa-hospital-idf/
More...

On Wednesday, the Israeli military said about 300 suspects were interrogated at the complex and more than 160 detained were brought to Israel “for further investigation”.

Hagari lol:

Cuddles · Mar 24, 2024

themickey said:
So I began reading this below and thought, "hmmmm, this sounds like bs...."
......................

Why This Pollster Says the Press Is Wrong About the Politics of Israel
Mark Mellman says Biden won’t lose Michigan because of the war in Gaza.

President Joe Biden joins Israel's prime minister for the start of the Israeli war cabinet meeting in Tel Aviv on Oct. 18, 2023. | Pool photo by Miriam Alster
By Ryan Lizza 03/23/2024
https://www.politico.com/news/magaz...ried-that-israel-will-sink-joe-biden-00148665

Ryan Lizza is a Playbook Co-Author and the Chief Washington Correspondent for POLITICO

How worried should Joe Biden be about the Muslim American vote in Michigan? What’s the fallout from Chuck Schumer’s speech lambasting Benjamin Netanyahu? And which progressive critics of Israel are actually in danger of losing their primaries?

Mark Mellman has been wrestling with these questions as both a longtime Democratic pollster and as a prominent advocate for pro-Israel policies. As the president of Democratic Majority for Israel, Mellman is targeting House Democrats seen as hostile to the Jewish state. But he’s also a realist....... continues at link above.
...............................
So I thought, "who is this Mark Mellman?"
Well surprise surprise.....

Mellman began political work during his Yale graduate studies. Mellman worked on Connecticut congressional candidate Bruce Morrison's ultimately successful 1981 campaign. Following this, Mellman formed Information Associates in Washington, D.C.; in 1986, the group was incorporated as The Mellman Group.

Kerry's presidential campaign Mellman's was an early Mellman Group, a race Kerry ultimately lost. Speaking after the election, Mellman says he foresaw the outcome of the Swiftboat campaign against Kerry. As the campaign grew, with advertising and coverage heavy on right-wing media such as Fox News and the Drudge Report, Mellman says he saw in the polls a tide turning against Kerry.

In January 2019, Mellman and other Democratic strategists started Democratic Majority for Israel, a group whose mission is to promote pro-Israel candidates among Democrats, especially in primary elections.

Mellman regularly participates in AIPAC conferences, for example speaking at a 2019 AIPAC event in Columbus alongside Neil Newhouse and working directly for AIPAC in the past. In 2015, Mellman consulted for a $25 million advertising campaign for the AIPAC-funded group Nuclear Free Iran. Based on the premise that increased exposure to details of the deal would lead most Americans to oppose it, Mellman's campaign recommendations aimed to disrupt the Iran nuclear agreement by increasing public skepticism. Mellman's firm received a quarter million dollars for its work. Mellman has consulted for other Jewish and pro-Israel organizations as well.

As of 2016, Mellman was president of the American Association of Political Consultants.

Since Yair Lapid entered politics, Mellman acted as a senior strategist for him. He describes his relationship Lapid and Yesh Atid as differing from his other clients. He notes that this relationship goes back very far, with Mellman helping decide the name of the party.

Positions
In 2013, Mellman commented on increasing sympathy for Palestinian over Israelis among Democrats according to polling data. Mellman argued that this shift remained small, representing a minority of the Democratic base. However, Mellman suggested handling the issue while it remained minor. He said the best way to do so would be by appealing to specific communities through their own angles, such as LGBT issues, immigration, and health care access, while at the same time confronting the Israel issue head on.[10] In late 2019, Mellman commented on a speech by Senator and Democratic Party presidential candidate Bernie Sanders to the liberal Jewish group J Street. Mellman opposed Sanders' suggestion that he would use the $3.8 billion in US aid to Israel as leverage to promote humanitarian policies in the Gaza strip. Mellman suggested that any aid cuts to Israel is not supported by the majority of Democrats and that the considerable support Sanders received for this position at the J Street event does not represent a majority of the Jewish community.

In 2010, Mellman suggested that Rasmussen Reports tended to be the most heavily stacked against Democratic candidates in elections.

Mellman opposed Sanders' run for president, supported Eliot Engel's run for a New York congressional seat against successful challenger Jamaal Bowman, and opposes Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions tactics against Israel.

Personal details
Mellman is an active member of the Modern Orthodox synagogue Kesher Israel in Washington, D.C.

WIKI
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It's antisemitic to say that Jews control the media yet god forbid you point out how Politico is going to a pro-Israeli pollster whose strategy is to sell us on how we ought to oust congress people who put America's interest before Israel's & lecture us why largely anti-racist democrat voter polling is wrong in their perception of Gaza.

themickey · Mar 24, 2024

Cuddles said:
It's antisemitic to say......
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The word antisimetic reminds me of the words 'blasphemy.'

Its a word concocted by a special interest group who believe with all their heart they are chosen, special, the governors, exhalted, by rights untouchable, and anyone questioning them should be condemned and punished severely.

Tony Stark · Mar 24, 2024