Do people understand that XOM doesn't need oil at 100 bucks to make money? They were criticized for not backing up the truck and spending all the R&D when oil was that expensive. XOM is a REFINERY. That's where they make most of their profits. They are much more diversified than the strict oil producers. BTW...the options market is only pricing in a 33% probability that XOM falls 10% or more between now and June, and a 31% probability that it goes up more than 10%. Doesn't look so crystal clear to me there.
Oil will always be the life blood of the WORLD. Don't believe you can make plastic from the SUN, WIND, TIDE, and GEOTHERMAL. Although Gore, Soros, and others would like you to believe. As a professional scientist for 10 years, discoveries point to oil as regenerative. Meaning that environmental and chemistry conditions keep the stuff coming, in other words, not a finite source if utilized properly with no GLUT. Also, it looks like Oil has become the currency base. I believe oil will stabilize at $75 and the support is $40. Oil at less than $60 only shows the producers that they can't have financial dominion over the WORLD. The Global Financiers still, and always will, RULE.
I will bet you that XOM doesn't fall below $65 over the next 4 months. And if it does fall that low, it will be a screaming buy.
It is important to NOTE that although CVX is maintaining the same Cap-Ex as 2008, there is a rather large decline in domest drilling cap-ex. 2008 saw cap-ex for domestic drilling at $5.5 Billion. For 2009, that drops to a mere $3.6 Billion, which also happens to be quite a bit lower than the 2007 figure of $4.5 Billion. This is what is driving the collapsing Baker Hughes Rig Count. See the latest rig count for PTEN in the month of January. It COLLAPSED from December!