Daily data? While my pairs system uses daily data, the trades for it last an average of 5 trading bars. The reversion down was expected because our pairs system indicated we were overbought the day of November 30th, and if anyone disputes that, believe me, they do not know how to read a chart. That was a topping formation to us indicating a sell off is eminent. This photo reflects the channel of the last week, and all I see is top after top after top, with a rare matching top that I don't think I've ever seen before. If you're betting up you must understand that November 30th was a lower high, not just a breach, and monthly data has no relevance on any time frame except within 2-3 weeks, but the levels set months ago make a difference to the average investor that might hold for a few weeks expecting his advisor to get them out. I'm sounding the warning alarm, and it would sound something like the siren from Boyle County's 1998 Bombing of Baghdad Marching Band show. For the hell of it: 7:50 http://youtu.be/LyqL3Z1nDrM <iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/LyqL3Z1nDrM" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Is this an academic exercise? Like I asked, what is your downside target? I am not sure which way we move, next. Being post-weekly expiry it's possible we have some selling Monday; can't get a read on what levels we sell to. I have held TQQQ puts, closed short puts. I have longs on some NDX stocks; shorts on others. You are sure while many others, are not. So have you sold short in furtherance of your certainty?! Did you actually take a position or is this a risk-free "guess." That chart is a dartboard 'pick-em' chart, to me, in the ST. But I don't purport to be a market guru or psychic like others on ET.
I shorted 3 on the signal at 2312.75 and got 2311.75 on those, and shorted 3 more on a double down call I made with my partner at 2321.50 which was exactly 1.5 points from the high today. I put IRA and Roth IRA clients in SQQQ on the first one, and I'm waiting to finish putting all of them in till funds settle from yesterday's transactions. The target hits a trail from 2293 0.9% approximately lower, around 2273-75. The trail stop activates with a 42% give back but we must close below those levels in order for it to be activated. I don't know where this notion that an RIA Rep who is a CTA doesn't trade. Maybe I only trade when it's in my favor. ;-)
Maybe, it is because you have spent a big chunk of your time being a condescending twirp, who acts like he has a miracle system without making an effort to explain how his miracle system works. The only evidence we have is your ETF that is underperforming the greater index. I stand by the belief that you may very well be right, but ...
Average profit is 8.5% on 3x instruments within 5 days. Have a nice night. If you want to know, it is in a 120 page manual I don't care to post, because it is proprietary.
So what! Your annulized track record shows -16%. Buddy, I have more education in economics, math and computer science than you do. Please, send me that document. I'd love to read it.
And I have only been trading for six months with trades since May 24, 2011 that have had less than 15 opportunities. Here is an explanation out of ET's Thread of the Year: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=230454&perpage=6&pagenumber=119 This pairs trade will put me in the black, and in the top 10 for the last 3 months. When you get to the part about what the oscillations for the next week will be, you should note that they are identical except for one BR HH that was actually a match but I consider it a lower high, and that was November 30th.
Perhaps, perhaps not. One significant piece of good news out of Europe will blast your system to pieces. One terrible piece of news will prove you right, but I don't think it will have anything to do with the quality of your system. All of the existing volatility is NOT technical in nature. It is raw emotion.
So says you. It is short covering by shorts. Fundamentals aren't supportive of equities when Europe is in recession and won't be printing money. This is deflationary, and will have a similar effect on the US.