Xmas Massacre followed by New Year Massacre?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by shortie, Dec 24, 2009.

SPY In 1 Month

  1. +7%

    11 vote(s)
  2. +5%

    13 vote(s)
  3. +3%

    12 vote(s)
  4. flat

    16 vote(s)
  5. -3%

    11 vote(s)
  6. -5%

    8 vote(s)
  7. -7%

    24 vote(s)
  1. The shorts are being killed right now (again, f*k! :( ) that's much is clear. My question is whether the same is about to happen to the bulls late to the party.

    Looking at the last year charts (see a couple of charts attached) I see that there was a fast run-up right into the new year all of which (and some more) was lost 1-2 weeks later.

    will the history repeat itself?
  2. [​IMG]

    Happy Holidays!
  3. the1


    I don't see the market making any kind of significant move down as long as the Fed keeps rates at 0. When the Fed raises or talks about raising the market will correct. Until then, this is a cheap money rally and cheap money policies always end badly.
  4. I think a big move down is possible at some point next year, but very doubtful in the next week or two. Strong bullish seasonality + continued upward drift on light volume = dumb time to short.
  5. This thread should've been title Xmas massacre of the shorts followed by New Years massacre of the longs.
  6. looking back at march-dec bull run, one thing i see is that as we were making new highs we had at least 7 corrections of 5% or more. right now we are in the longest stretch since the last correction (~ 2 months).

  7. The consolidation just ended. You want to go short so soon?
  8. Shortie-

    You're right that there were pullbacks after each new high, but what you didn't pay attention to is that each new high was about 1.5% 2 % above the previous high before the pullback occurred.

    This is why i'm looking for about 1140 on the S&P before any pullback occurs. I'll be exiting some of my long positions there.
  9. yes, i see that, but the market must get tired at some point (why not around now after ~70% gain?) and will fail to make much higher high.
  10. ammo


    when is the 1st day to sell stock that will settle in 2010,we've been going sideways since sept,it's possible they just held it up here to get a good looking return on there 09 portfolios, good bonus , and if the 6 month out projection for the market is weak,they will unload on that date
    #10     Dec 26, 2009