XLI (Industrials) is trading $29.07, with IV30™ up 4.5%. XLY (Consumer Discretionary) is trading $30.73 with IV30™ up 1.0%. <img src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hMry1m7UF10/TG6WYvf0zRI/AAAAAAAAEN0/AWprw15JIgE/s1600/xli_summary.gif"> <img src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hMry1m7UF10/TG6WY505y1I/AAAAAAAAEN8/9o6LMRyik1o/s1600/xly_summary.gif"> Cathy Clay, floor trader extraordinaire on the NYSE ARCA brought this order flow to my attention. Yesterday two huge trades crossed the tape in the Jan '11 19 puts; same lines, same month for both. The top trades from yesterday are included below (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/08/xly.html">in the article</a>). First XLI, then XLY below it. The Options Tab for both are included (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/08/xly.html">in the article</a>). Note the OI in those lines (first XLI, then XLY). Both lines are 100k+ long those puts. These are massive bets on a downturn and a vol jump. The XLY line is long $190,000/vol in vega. The XLI line is long $240,000/vol in vega. Taken together, these bets are long $430,000/vol in vega. That's almost half a million for each point vol moves in those puts. The 52 wk ranges on these two are: XLY [$25.40, $36.13] XLI [$24.29, $33.46] Make no mistake, this is a bet on a spasm in the financial markets before year end. Note also the EFA (Europe, Australia and Far East) order flow; big put buyers and spreaders. Jeff Kearns of Bloomberg brought this to my attention and will have a detailed article about EFA coming out soon. At the end of Nov (ish) in 2008: XLY dipped into the $16 area; XLI into the $19 area. Hmmm. This is trade analysis, not a recommendation. Details, trades, vols, vegas here: http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/08/xly.html