XLU

Discussion in 'Options' started by oldnemesis, Feb 6, 2016.

  1. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-why-utilities-buy-now-200208164.html

    Well...I wouldn't call utilities a buy right now. While fundamentals are certainly favorable, everyone already knows this and utilities have been bid up:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=XLU+Interactive#{"range":"2y","allowChartStacking":true}

    At 46.57 it's already a bit late to buy XLU. I should have bought at 40, or lower.

    Lets say I'm willing to buy at $40:

    Trade
    With XLU at 46.57
    Jan '17 40/35 bull put spread for a net credit of $50
    Yield = 50/450 = 11.1% in 349 days or 11.6% annualized
    Prob = 80%
    Expectation = .8(50) - .05(450) - .15(225) = 40 - 22.5 - 33.75 = -16.25

    Price.............. Profit / Loss.......... ROM %
    26.25................. (450.00)........... -88.90%
    32.38................. (450.00)........... -88.90%
    35.00................. (450.00)........... -88.90%
    38.84.................. (65.90)............ -13.18%
    39.50..................... 0.00................ 0.00%
    40.00.................... 50.00.............. 11.10%
    45.30.................... 50.00.............. 11.10%
    51.76.................... 50.00.............. 11.10%
    58.21.................... 50.00.............. 11.10%

    11.6% annualized is a little below what I usually try to get in these trades. I would be happier with something north of 15%. The closing bid on Friday for this spread was $48. Ten year treasuries are currently yielding 2%

    http://www.bankrate.com/rates/interest-rates/treasury.aspx

    TLT is paying 2.48%

    VWESX pays 4.38%

    XLU itself pays 3.5%

    OptionsXpress seems to think I can get $75 for the trade which would be an annualized 18%. On Monday AM I will try some fishing to see if something closer to the $75 can actually be filled.
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2016