XLF has found itself in a critical juncture. I have given plenty of reason for a top in the last post. Now I will give the critical levels that would confirm a top in XLF is complete. I stated in the last update a strong case for a top using Elliott Wave analysis. I also stated that there was an incomplete A-B-C wave correction. Now I want to make a case that the A-B-C wave correction is complete and a major move down in wave three is expected in the next couple of weeks. Like in the last update, I am using a 60-minute chart to show more clearly the Elliott Wave count. You can see a clear five waves down from the 10/14/09 top labeled with circled numbers. This completes wave I on 11/2/09 with a red square around it. Since then, we can count a 3-3-5 wave pattern indicating an Elliott Wave Flat pattern. This is shown on the chart as wave a, b, and c. As you can see, wave c is a five wave impulsive pattern. In Elliott Wave analysis, wave c is always a five-wave impulse wave in flats and zig-zags. This completes wave II on 11/11/09 shown on the chart with a red square around it. Since 11/11/09, I can count a complete five waves down. If not complete, it will be with one more push early Monday below the 11/13/09 low. How could I be wrong? The price action from the 10/14/09 high could be a larger corrective pattern, not a change in trend. What I have labeled as wave I with a square could be wave A and wave II with a square could be wave B. Wave C would be incomplete. Even in this scenario, wave C should fall to at least the 13.00 level. That is where wave C will equal wave A and there is an unfilled gap from 8/3/09 at that level. One more thing to mention is the Fibonacci retracement levels from the 10/14/09 high to the 11/2/09 low. Wave II hit a roadblock at the 61.8% retracement level. The candlestick patterns on the 120-minute chart also indicate a wave II top. Expect XLF to fall from current levels to the 13.00 price level as the minimum target. The critical resistance level that must hold for my count to be correct is the wave II high of 11/11/09. You can short XLF with a stop loss at the 11/11/09 high or you can buy SKF as the Ultra Short Financial ProShares ETF. SKF price action and wave pattern is the inverse of what I just posted.
I stated in the last update a strong case for a top using Elliott Wave analysis. I also stated that there was an incomplete A-B-C wave correction. Now I want to make a case that the A-B-C wave correction is complete and a major move down in wave three is expected in the next couple of weeks. Like in the last update, I am using a 60-minute chart to show more clearly the Elliott Wave count. You can see a clear five waves down from the 10/14/09 top labeled with circled numbers. This completes wave I on 11/2/09 with a red square around it. Since then, we can count a 3-3-5 wave pattern indicating an Elliott Wave Flat pattern. This is shown on the chart as wave a, b, and c. As you can see, wave c is a five wave impulsive pattern. In Elliott Wave analysis, wave c is always a five-wave impulse wave in flats and zig-zags. This completes wave II on 11/11/09 shown on the chart with a red square around it. Since 11/11/09, I can count a complete five waves down. If not complete, it will be with one more push early Monday below the 11/13/09 low. How could I be wrong? The price action from the 10/14/09 high could be a larger corrective pattern, not a change in trend. What I have labeled as wave I with a square could be wave A and wave II with a square could be wave B. Wave C would be incomplete. Even in this scenario, wave C should fall to at least the 13.00 level. That is where wave C will equal wave A and there is an unfilled gap from 8/3/09 at that level. One more thing to mention is the Fibonacci retracement levels from the 10/14/09 high to the 11/2/09 low. Wave II hit a roadblock at the 61.8% retracement level. The candlestick patterns on the 120-minute chart also indicate a wave II top.
XLF has done nothing but move sideways since September. I have stated in previous post that I believe a corrective top is complete and I continue to believe it. I will attempt to back it up using Elliott Wave Analysis. The Financial Sector has been weak relative to other sectors and the overall market indexes in general. The financials have not even come close to making new highs as the major large cap indexes have made higher highs. This is a significant divergence and the reason I believe that the price is heading for lower prices. XLF topped on 10/14/09 and it has traced out a five-wave decline to the 11/2/09 low. Since then has been nothing but a corrective pattern, which I believe is not complete. The high of 11/11/09 completed wave-A. The overlapping nature of the pattern to the 11/27/09 low, completed wave-B. The rise since then has taken on a three-wave pattern up. Since we have only three wave up since the 11/27/09 low, I expect one more push to break above the 12/1/09 high. This should complete the corrective pattern. I have labeled the chart with my counts. This should come to a conclusion by tomorrow. From there, we can expect new lows ahead. A break below the wave-B low will signal that the correction is over and the price is heading for new lows.
The price moved higher just as expected, however, it headed down sooner and harder that I expected. Besides a key reversal day, it painted a major bearish engulfment on higher than average volume. Look out below!
The price has had a huge decline just in the last two days. That is not a good sign if you needing the price to move higher. There may be one or two day bounces on the way down to lower lows. There is good support at the 14.00 and 13.65 levels. The next support below that is the 13.10 level.