CL1 contract just retested 03/09 high at 60,90 while OIH has clearly exceeded its intraday high of 03/09. Imo the fact that stocks lead commodity is a bullish development and OIH should retest its March high above 144 within a week or so.
Perhaps, oil bounces off recent lows, if we can get a strong break above $65 confirming a breakout and a real bottom, I'll be more bullish. Right now, I'm cautiously bullish.
If you look at a 30 day 60 minute chart the XLE gap at $54 filled. There is one at $56, however the daily selling a while ago was quite nasty. And how it's in a range. It has to break & hold above the high on friday (top of range) to convince me. OIH has same chart.
XLE performance correlates well with XNG (Amex Nat Gas Index). I think next upleg in XLE will be mostly caused by the price of natural gas rather than the price of oil. It has been distressed for now but clearly reversing (already up 15% from March low). Needs to break February reaction high (11% up from current level) for the final confirmation of trend reversal.
Exactly. So far it's in a daily range. Look @ 60 min chart this is 3rd or time testing top of the range (the high on friday). Time to break through or die. If it dies I'll sell an April OIH or XLE call spread, ATM. Would prefer european ex. OIX otions but they are illiquid.
Seasonality also supports bull case now. According to Citigroup technical research, July CL contract has a tendency to rise from the third week of March into the third week of May. This was correct 18 times in the last 22 years.