========================= Global fin/Vhehn; Dont know how to trade much on fundamentals. XLE,OIH related still in med/long term uptrends/50/200 day moving averages. Some oil/gas tocks have crashed / stayed this week below 50 day moving average; actually covered nice short recently in that sector, XLE has seen much better uptrends than FEB. And like to pay attention to sell volume spikes in XLE not a very good sign of uptrend strength,eod, XLE, may hold @50 day area??????? Dont want to hold shorts overnight with 200 dma long uptrends,Iran,Iraq.....
Heh, I underestimated the power of the downtrend. Another $1 before it hits my primary target, then I'll reconsider.
XLE falls to 51.75 INET. *Rings cash register* *Sticks it at the bulls* GlobalFinancier vs Market 1-1.(Lost on the Nikkei prediction)
==================== Actually thought [wrongly]the XLE ,50 day moving average might have held; but agreed in deed with the polar bears earlier on some, weak oil/gas stocks, which crashed below thier 50 dma earlier. Another likely scenerio ,peradventure, supply/demand,; 200 dma may help uptrenders again, later .Not a prediction. Looks like in the medium term , maybe lots still unwinding thier ''texas hedges'', as market makers call them; know some derivative traders when thier ''texas hedges '' dont work out ,they just sell them.
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsA...KOC_0_US-WEATHER-NORTHEAST.xml&archived=False The myth of the warm winter is busted. Anyways, oil is still down(Below $61 as of now.). Keep shorting XLE. I think this shows that supply/selling is still strong despite "international tensions and cold weather"
Hmm, thinking it over, it seems that there is a possibility of a bounce, due to the steep downtrend in oil recently. I'm still bearish, but be warned, don't worry if oil turns up $1 -$2 tomorrow.
Imho OIH should at worst hold 125-126 area and then make a base like in October 2005, followed by a Buy signal. I still think low might be made during February (I mentioned the reasons in the post from Feb, 03) but it's still too early to buy from the risk-reward standpoint. http://tinyurl.com/bwvzj