Those who were bullish XLE in 78 to 80 area have been silent during this down move. In 5 days it fell from 79.2ish to 73.60/73.61 (current bid/ask). Are bears about to cover? If oil rises tomorrow (Saudi protests) would XLE rise?
Did you not say a different price below, and that it would take 14 days? It took only 5 days for the dive.
Yes I did, that is a countertrend trade that could be taken based on my system. You were asking a full sentiment change. I say not yet. And five days for the dive means that you would do well to find the last low that was taken out and move your stop. Price has overbalanced time and there will be a challenge of that high sooner than later.
XLE was around 30 cents from 78 today. I have a feeling that this bounce might get stuck soon. My models were right on this baby when they told me to watch out for the 79.ish to 80 ish area as the top of the last 25 days or so.