CVX warns big. SLB HAL layoffs on tap. Is this baked into to xle already? or not? CVX is 14% of XLE weighting fwiw. Chevron sees "significantly" lower fourth-quarter earnings By Jim Jelter Last update: 5:11 p.m. EST Jan. 8, 2009 warned late Thursday that its fourth-quarter earnings will likely be "significantly lower" than in the third quarter. In its interim quarterly update, the nation's second-largest oil company blamed most of the drop on falling crude-oil and natural gas prices, which have carved deeply into earnings from the production end of its business. The company did not offer specific earnings estimates, but analysts polled by FactSet Research had predicted the company would earn $1.89 a share in the quarter on $61.71 billion in revenue. The company is slated to release its fourth-quarter results on Jan. 3
The XLE doesn't track the fair value of the underlying stocks as well as DIA and SPY but it's still very likely that if CVX reflected the news, the XLE did as well.
Propped Up by Thin Air By Jim Cramer About this article: A friend emails and says that "they" are trying to take the Oil Services HOLDRs up in my face. And it's true. All day today there was a bid for the oil drillers, mostly from people playing the "they are down so much I have to buy them" game. I have played it, too -- all my life. The best way to win, though, is to set an arbitrary limit of how much you are willing to make and then let the rest be taken by others. With the oscillator at the highest level in ages, with the oil service companies like Halliburton and Schlumberger laying off people -- as we found out after the close -- and with Chevron totally blowing the quarter and clearly not locking in any sales of crude at high levels, I just cannot make the case for these
I would tend to agree. XOM is overvalued here, and I am totally blown away by how nat-gas land drillers like PTEN are still trading up where they are as the rig count is plummeting in their face and has a long way to go before bottoming, if you were to compare this move to the previous 2 cyclical troughs.
Wow, who would have thought agreeing on the fact that XOM is overvalued. XOM is headed down these next 12 months, if anyone actually thinks record profits are going to continue better think twice, I see XOM down 20-25% the 1st half of 2009.
Contrary to your claims/predictions that are based on absolutely zero research or technical analysis, I actually do some "homework" and number crunching. I bet you haven't the slightest clue where the rig count bottomed back in 1998, or 2001-2002.