XHB is cruising for a bruising

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by silk, Jan 7, 2013.

  1. silk


    This is silly season, funds marking up last years winners. I used to trade builders at 1.5 times book and 6 PE's in 2003 and 2004 when the bubble was just kicking in to gear. Now the co's have worse balance sheets, worse land positions, worse demographics, worse homeownship trends, and wall street wants to put 20 forward Pe's and price-books ratios of 2-3 on these Silly season.

    I remember BZH trading for 1 times book value and a 6 PE in 2004 when it was minting cash and every home they could build would instantly be sold. I apply that same valuation on BZH today, and discount it for the highly leveraged and impaired balance sheet, and i get a target of $4. ROFL. Don't even get me started on Hovnanian. It could build homes for 6-8 years and still have negative shareholder equity.

    EXP stock price is a freak show. 9 times book, 6 times fixed assets, and forward PE north of 20 for cement and wood.

    Last few days it was refiners getting sold. It will be housing in the next 12-400 hours. Good luck! And don't be a bag holder.